Construction and Validation of a Predictive Nomogram Based on Ultrasound for Lymph Node Metastasis of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma in the Cervical Central Region

Abstract

To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in the cervical central region. This retrospective study included 287 PTC patients with 309 nodules treated from December 2018 to May 2020 at our hospital. The cohort was divided randomly into a training set and a testing set according to a 7:3 ratio. The training set contained 216 nodules, and the testing set contained 93 nodules. The nomogram was developed using the training set, and the data of the testing set were used to validate the performance of nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The study showed multifocality, thyroid lesion size, and American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging, Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS) score were significantly independently associated with LNM in the cervical central region. In the testing set, the calibration curve showed that the nomogram had good discrimination with a C-index of 0.775 (95% confidence interval, 0.680–0.869) and adequate calibration (P = 0.808). By decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve analysis, the nomogram was shown to have a satisfactory net benefit between thresholds of 0.40 and 0.75. The nomogram can be used for predicting LNM of PTC in the cervical central region and may provide valuable guidance for planning the surgical treatment of PTC patients.