African Americans have the highest rates of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infection in the U.S. and also high reinfection rates. The primary objective of this study was to develop a Bayesian model to predict the probability of CT reinfection in African-American women using immunogenetic data.
We analyzed data from a cohort of CT-infected African-American women enrolled at the time they returned to a clinic in Birmingham, AL, for treatment of a positive routine CT test. We modeled the probability of CT reinfection within 6 months after treatment using logistic regression in a Bayesian framework. Predictors of interest were presence or absence of an HLA-DQB1*06 allele and CT-specific CD4+ IFN-γ response, both of which we had previously reported were independently associated with CT reinfection risk.
Among 99 participants evaluated, the probability of reinfection for those with a CT-specific CD4+ IFN-γ response and no HLA-DQB1*06 alleles was 14.1% (95% credible interval [CI]: 3.0% - 45.0%), whereas probability of reinfection for those without a CT-specific CD4+ IFN-γ response and at least one HLA-DQB1*06 allele was 61.5% (95% CI: 23.1% - 89.7%).
Our model demonstrated that presence or absence of an HLA-DQB1*06 allele and CT-specific CD4+ IFN-γ response can have an impact on the predictive probability of CT reinfection in African-American women.