In Brief:
From 1999 to 2003, 3881 persons responded to each of five annual surveys about back pain (BP). BP courses with a constant status, either BP present or absent, were most frequent (48.5%). Prior BP history is highly predictive for future BP episodes. One-year BP recurrences increased with increasing numbers of previous consecutive years with BP (if 1 year: 46.9%, if at least 4 years: 88.1%).
