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Risk Stratification Tool Accurately Predicts Prostate Cancer Progression

doi: 10.1097/01.COT.0000511590.98781.a4
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Predicting when prostate cancer is aggressive enough to warrant immediate treatment can be a challenge. Researchers at Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, N.Y. have found that a particular prostate cancer nomogram accurately predicts the outcomes of prostate cancer patients and is a useful tool for informing treatment decisions. The findings have been published online ahead of print in the Journal of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (2016;14(11):1395-1401).

Researchers at Roswell Park compared the long-term outcomes of nearly 2,000 postoperative prostate cancer patients treated between 1993 and 2014 with the Kattan postoperative radical prostatectomy nomogram. The nomogram is a tool used to predict individual recurrence and mortality from prostate cancer. All of the Kattan nomogram predictions tracked closely with the actual outcomes of patients at 5 and 10 years after radical prostatectomy. In particular, the Kattan nomogram's predictions for patients at 10 years after radical prostatectomy were within the 95 percent confidence interval of actual biochemical-free recurrence at 10 years.

While the Kattan nomogram has been validated previously, this research offered a new assessment of the tool using modern, standardized clinical and pathologic definitions to compare actual outcomes with those predicted by the nomogram. This study showed that the Kattan nomogram is a robust predictor of the likelihood of biochemical failure and treatment failure.

“Patients need reliable information to help them decide whether to be treated for localized prostate cancer. Nomograms that predict outcomes accurately can help, but the usefulness of these tools must be tested in our patients,” said the senior author of the study, James Mohler, MD, Associate Director for Translational Research and Chair of the Department of Urology at Roswell Park. “This research validates the risk stratification measure as a valuable component of the decision-making process as clinicians recommend a patient's treatment plan.”

“Clinical nomograms can be a helpful tool to clinicians to help identify patients most likely to experience poor outcomes,” added the study's first author, Rochelle Payne Ondracek, PhD, Research Associate in the Department of Cancer Prevention and Population Sciences at Roswell Park.

Copyright © 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
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