To validate and compare performance of an International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision (ICD-10) version of a combined comorbidity index merging conditions of Charlson and Elixhauser measures against individual measures in the prediction of 30-day mortality. To select a weight derivation method providing optimal performance across ICD-9 and ICD-10 coding systems.
Using 2 adult population-based cohorts of patients with hospital admissions in ICD-9 (2005, n=337,367) and ICD-10 (2011, n=348,820), we validated a combined comorbidity index by predicting 30-day mortality with logistic regression. To appreciate performance of the Combined index and both individual measures, factors impacting indices performance such as population characteristics and weight derivation methods were accounted for. We applied 3 scoring methods (Van Walraven, Schneeweiss, and Charlson) and determined which provides best predictive values.
Combined index [c-statistics: 0.853 (95% confidence interval: CI, 0.848–0.856)] performed better than original Charlson [0.841 (95% CI, 0.835–0.844)] or Elixhauser [0.841 (95% CI, 0.837–0.844)] measures on ICD-10 cohort. All weight derivation methods provided close high discrimination results for the Combined index (Van Walraven: 0.852, Schneeweiss: 0.851, Charlson: 0.849). Results were consistent across both coding systems.
The Combined index remains valid with both ICD-9 and ICD-10 coding systems and the 3 weight derivation methods evaluated provided consistent high performance across those coding systems.