The authors present a four-state increment-decrement life table model from which estimates of the risk and duration of nursing home and short-term hospital stays in the United States are derived.
Survival analysis was used to generate various transition probabilities while controlling for population heterogeneity. In addition, a newly developed algorithm was applied to construct the multistate life table specifically for health-care use.
The results reveal that in 1985, a US civilian is expected to spend 72.35 years in the community, 59.5 days in short-stay hospitals, and 2.28 years in nursing homes throughout his or her lifetime.
The single-year risk of nursing home and short-stay hospital use is shown to be an increasing function of age, especially for the older adults.
*From the Institute of Gerontology, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
†From the School of Public Health, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
‡From the Division of Social Sciences, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong.
§From the Center for Health System Studies, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, Michigan.
Supported by a grant from the Michigan Health Care Education and Research Foundation, 1991-1993. Preliminary research was supported by the Great Lakes Health Services Research and Development Field Program Department of Veterans Affairs, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Data for this research were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics and National Center for Health Service Research and Health Care Technology Assessment. Data files were made available through the Inter-University Consortium for Social and Political Research (ICPSR) at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. The original collectors of the data, ICPSR, and the relevant funding agencies bear no responsibility for analysis and interpretation of these data.
Address for correspondence: Jersey Liang, Institute of Gerontology, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2007.