Original ArticlesPredictors of Future Suicide Attempts Among Individuals Referred to Psychiatric Services in the Emergency Department A Longitudinal StudyWang, Yunqiao MA*; Bhaskaran, Joanna MA*; Sareen, Jitender MD*†‡; Wang, JianLi PhD§∥; Spiwak, Rae MSc‡; Bolton, James M. MD*†‡Author Information Departments of *Psychology, †Psychiatry, and ‡Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba; and Departments of §Psychiatry and ∥Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Send reprint requests to James M. Bolton, MD, PZ430-771 Bannatyne Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3E 3N4. E-mail: [email protected]. The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease: July 2015 - Volume 203 - Issue 7 - p 507-513 doi: 10.1097/NMD.0000000000000320 Buy Metrics Abstract This study examined which factors predict future suicide attempts (SAs) among people referred to psychiatric services in the emergency department (ED). It included consecutive adult (age >18 years) presentations (N = 6919) over a 3-year period to the two tertiary care hospitals in Manitoba, Canada. Medical professionals assessed each individual on 19 candidate risk factors. Stepwise logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves examined the association between the baseline variables and future SAs within the next 6 months. A total of 104 individuals re-presented to the ED with future SAs. Of the 19 baseline variables, only two independently accounted for the variance in future attempts. High-risk scores using this two-item model were associated with elevated odds of future SA (odds ratio, 3.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.62–6.42; p < 0.01), but this was tempered by a low positive predictive value. Further evaluation is required to determine if this two-item tool could help identify people requiring more comprehensive risk assessment referred to psychiatry in the ED. Copyright © 2015 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.