Advanced technologies (eg, robotic technology) and computing infrastructure (eg, artificial intelligence) continue to transform the nature of work across the globe through job automation by means of computer-controlled equipment.1 While job automation improves productivity, economic growth, and community development, there is a growing concern about how job automation may disrupt the supply and demand of labor.2,3 Confirming this concern, 65% of Americans believe that robots and computers will take over many jobs currently performed by humans in the next 50 years.2 These changes may disproportionately impact certain groups in society as 76% of Americans believe income inequality will increase with job automation.2 Concerns about job automation have also been found to vary by socioeconomic standing and political ideology.4 One study of vocational rehabilitation programs found most job placements have high probabilities of being automated in the future, such as in housekeeping/janitorial service (66% probability), administrative and clerical tasks (96%), food service (87%−96%), and warehouse positions.3 Other studies have simulated future changes in work with the development of automation technologies and argue that the creation of new jobs, retraining, and government interventions can help plan for job automation.5 Regardless, there is expected to be consequences of job automation on both developed and developing countries.2
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically changed the landscape of work. The pandemic has not only been deleterious and led to increased morbidity and mortality, but it has also impacted the global economy and the nature of work. Because governments across the world implemented mitigation strategies to reduce virus contamination, millions of individuals either permanently or temporarily lost their jobs, and many employers turned to new strategies to shore up labor shortages and handle higher labor costs.6,7 Research done by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training revealed that jobs that are considered low risk of automation provided a shield against job loss during the COVID-19 pandemic.8 However, it is unclear whether concerns about job automation have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic and how they may manifest in the future of work.
Although job automation has boomed recently, there has not been an adequate examination of this issue in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is unclear how susceptible the general public is to job automation, what concerns there are about automation, and which groups in society are most susceptible to automation and automation concerns. Therefore, in the current study, we used a national demographically representative sample of middle- and low-income US adults to examine (1) the prevalence of job automation experienced by the population during the COVID-19 pandemic, (2) sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with job automation experiences, and (3) the prevalence and correlates of job automation concerns during the COVID-19 pandemic.
METHODS
Sample
Data were from a national sample of 6607 middle- and low-income US adults recruited May to June 2020 to examine health and social well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic. Eligibility for the study were individuals who were 22 years or older, lived in the United States, and reported annual personal income of $75,000 or less. Participants were recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk), which is an online labor market with more than 500,000 participants across 200 countries. To ensure data quality, only participants who had completed 50 or more human intelligence tasks and had a human intelligence task approval rating of 50% or higher were eligible to participate. Data derived from MTurk have been found to be of similar quality or higher than that from traditional subject pools, such as community samples, college students, and professional panels.9
Of 9760 individuals who initially agreed to participate in the study, 6762 (69.3%) met eligibility criteria and 155 individuals after validity checks (ie, they failed 3 items from the validity scales from the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory 2). The final study sample consisted of 6607 participants (67.7% of initial recruitment) from all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. All participants provided informed consent and were compensated for participation, and study procedures were approved by the institutional review board at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston.
Measures
Background information was collected by asking participants their age, sex, race/ethnicity, income level education, marital status, student status, employment status, geographic region, any active service in the military, and the number of minor children in their household.
COVID-19 status was assessed by asking participants whether they had been tested for COVID-19 and what the outcome was (ie, positive, negative, not tested). They were also asked whether anyone close to them (eg, friends, family) had tested positive for COVID-19.
Physical health status was assessed by asking participants whether they had ever been diagnosed with any of 22 different physical health conditions (eg, cancer, heart disease, arthritis) and the total number was summed.10
Psychiatric history was assessed by asking participants whether they had ever been diagnosed with any of 8 mental health or substance use disorders (schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder, alcohol use disorder, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorder, major depressive disorder, drug use disorder, traumatic brain injury).
Social connectedness was assessed with the Medical Outcomes Study (MOS) Social Support Survey–Short Form.11
Job changes experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic were assessed with a question that asked: “During COVID-19 social distancing measures, has your employer changed your job in any way?” Participants responded by checking any of the following that applied: “Automated your entire job (ie, used robots/machines/machines),” “Automated aspects of your job,” “Moved to virtual communication (eg, videoconference calls),” “Reduced your paid hours,” “Other (please specify),” and “N/A, no employer.” Any job change was coded as any of the previously mentioned response except for “N/A” or “No change.”
Concern about job automation was assessed with a question that asked: “How worried are you about job automation in your occupation (ie, robots, machines, computers replacing your job)?” Participants responded on a 5-point scale from 1 (Not at all) to 5 (Extremely).
Data Analysis
Poststratification weights were applied to all of the following analyses. First, descriptive analyses were conducted with the total sample to describe reported job changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, among recently employed participants (ie, reported either being employed or had recently lost their job at study enrollment), we divided participants into those who reported experiencing any job automation during the COVID-19 pandemic and those who did not. These 2 groups were compared on sociodemographic and clinical characteristics with t tests and chi-squared tests. Third, we conducted a logistic regression analysis to identify participant sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with job automation, including only significant variables found in the bivariate analyses. Fourth, we conducted descriptive analyses with the total sample to describe concerns about job automation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Fifth, participants in the total sample were then divided into those who reported they were “moderately” or “extremely” worried about job automation (herein labeled the automation concerned [AC] group) and those reported they were “not at all,” “slightly,” or “somewhat moderately” worried about job automation (herein labeled the automation unconcerned [AU] group). Six, the AC and AU groups were compared with bivariate tests followed by a multiple regression analysis to identify sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with greater concerns about job automation.
RESULTS
Table 1 shows reported job changes in the total sample (N = 6607), which showed nearly one-third reported their job moved to virtual communication and nearly one-fifth experienced reduced hours or reduce salary during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, in the total sample, 1143 (weighted 14.3%) reported that their job were partially or entirely automated during the pandemic (excluded 161 participants who indicated both partial and entire automation). Overall, 4501 participants (weighted 58.0%) reported that their employer changed their job in at least one of these ways during the pandemic.
TABLE 1 -
Reported Job Changes Due to
COVID-19 Social Distancing Measure Among Middle and Low-Income Adults (
N = 6,607)
During COVID-19 Social Distancing Measures, Has your Employer Changed Your Job in any Way? (Check all that Apply)? |
n |
Weighted % of Cases |
N/A, no employer, self-employed, or not working |
1,939 |
39.2% |
Moved to virtual communication (eg, videoconference calls) |
2,427 |
31.4% |
Reduced hours/reduced salary |
1,435 |
18.6% |
Automated aspects of your job |
860 |
10.7% |
Automated your entire job (ie, used robots/machines/machines) |
444 |
5.7% |
No changes |
222 |
3.6% |
Implemented social distancing measures (eg, masks, physical barriers) |
142 |
2.1% |
Laid off/furloughed |
145 |
2.0% |
Business closed |
45 |
0.8% |
Other/more responsibility and tasks |
27 |
0.4% |
Raise/increase in work hours |
21 |
0.3% |
Total |
7,707 |
|
Experiences With Job Automation During COVID-19 Pandemic
We then focused analyses on only participants who were recently employed (n = 5531). Among participants who were recently employed, 1122 (weighted 19.1%) reported that their jobs were partially or entirely automated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
As shown in Table 2, participants who reported experiencing job automation during the COVID-19 pandemic were significantly younger, with lower levels of income, higher levels of education, and were more likely to be male, racial/ethnic minority, attending school, married/living with partner, have more minor children, to live in the West and South regions of the country, and to be a veteran compared with participants who reported no job automation. Participants who reported job automation also reported significantly more physical health conditions, reported lower social support, and were more likely to report any lifetime history of psychiatric disorder, a positive test for COVID-19, and a positive COVID-19 test among a loved one.
TABLE 2 -
Comparison of Characteristics between US Adults Who Had their Jobs Automated and Those Who Did Not
|
Total (N = 5,531) |
Automation (n = 1,122) |
No Automation (n = 4,409) |
ToD |
Raw n/Mean |
Weighted %/SD |
Raw n/Mean |
Weighted %/SD |
Raw n/Mean |
Weighted %/SD |
χ2 or t Test |
Background characteristics |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Age |
44.01 |
15.13 |
39.76 |
12.60 |
45.02 |
15.50 |
13.379*** |
Male |
2,630 |
46.50% |
710 |
63.00% |
1,920 |
42.60% |
189.536*** |
Race |
|
|
|
|
|
|
420.408*** |
White |
4,147 |
76.00% |
670 |
60.60% |
3,477 |
79.70% |
|
Black |
805 |
14.20% |
325 |
31.40% |
480 |
10.20% |
|
Asian |
393 |
4.00% |
72 |
3.80% |
321 |
4.00% |
|
Other |
186 |
5.80% |
55 |
4.20% |
131 |
6.10% |
|
Ethnicity, Hispanic |
877 |
21.40% |
351 |
43.70% |
526 |
16.10% |
512.814*** |
Income level |
37,481.01 |
21,931.29 |
34,174.10 |
25,205.37 |
38,263.54 |
21,008.64 |
5.622*** |
Education |
|
|
|
|
|
|
236.437*** |
High school or below |
384 |
7.50% |
40 |
4.10% |
344 |
8.30% |
|
Some college |
1,013 |
21.00% |
147 |
12.90% |
866 |
22.90% |
|
Associates/bachelor’s degree |
2,876 |
49.20% |
545 |
46.50% |
2,331 |
49.80% |
|
Graduate degree |
1,258 |
22.30% |
390 |
36.40% |
868 |
19.00% |
|
Part-time/full-time student |
1,444 |
22.90% |
567 |
50.00% |
877 |
16.50% |
721.246*** |
Marital status |
|
|
|
|
|
319.192*** |
Single |
1,767 |
26.10% |
240 |
16.50% |
1,527 |
28.30% |
|
Divorced/Separated/Widowed |
463 |
14.30% |
35 |
3.60% |
428 |
16.90% |
|
Married/Living with partner |
3,301 |
59.60% |
847 |
79.90% |
2,454 |
54.80% |
|
No. minors in household |
1.73 |
0.96 |
2.23 |
0.90 |
1.61 |
0.93 |
−22.854*** |
Currently employed full-time |
3,741 |
63.30% |
946 |
84.10% |
2,795 |
58.40% |
321.726*** |
Region |
|
|
|
|
|
|
101.397*** |
Northeast |
1,066 |
18.30% |
207 |
17.60% |
859 |
18.40% |
|
Midwest |
1,061 |
19.80% |
164 |
14.10% |
897 |
21.10% |
|
South |
2,117 |
38.70% |
400 |
35.40% |
1,717 |
39.50% |
|
West |
1,287 |
23.30% |
351 |
32.90% |
936 |
21.00% |
|
Military veteran |
731 |
16.40% |
403 |
37.80% |
328 |
11.30% |
579.339*** |
Clinical characteristics |
|
|
|
|
|
|
No. physical health conditions |
1.78 |
2.44 |
2.79 |
4.01 |
1.55 |
1.76 |
−11.126*** |
Any lifetime history of psychiatric diagnosis |
2,892 |
48.20% |
912 |
83.40% |
1,980 |
39.90% |
855.775*** |
Tested positive for COVID-19 |
342 |
5.70% |
220 |
18.90% |
122 |
2.50% |
565.017*** |
Had loved one test positive for COVID-19 |
1,443 |
24.30% |
507 |
45.30% |
936 |
19.30% |
413.183*** |
MOS Social Support Survey score |
21.29 |
5.94 |
22.01 |
4.34 |
21.12 |
6.25 |
−6.308*** |
MOS, Medical Outcomes Study; ToD, test of difference.
***P < .001.
These bivariate findings were followed with a logistic regression (Table 3), which showed being male, from a racial/ethnic minority group, having higher levels of education, being a student, working full-time, and having any history of psychiatric disorder were all independently significantly associated with job automation (all odd ratios >1.50).
TABLE 3 -
Logistic Regression (Dependent:
Job Automation or No
Job Automation)
|
B
|
SE |
Wald |
df
|
Sig |
Odds Ratio |
Age |
−0.016 |
0.003 |
24.016 |
1 |
<0.001 |
0.985 |
Sex: Male (reference: not a male) |
0.412 |
0.075 |
29.899 |
1 |
<0.001 |
1.510
|
Race (reference: White) |
|
|
|
|
|
Black |
0.660 |
0.093 |
49.876 |
1 |
<0.001 |
1.934
|
Asian |
0.454 |
0.183 |
6.121 |
1 |
0.013 |
1.575
|
Other |
0.356 |
0.166 |
4.581 |
1 |
0.032 |
1.427 |
Hispanic (reference: non-Hispanic) |
0.528 |
0.083 |
40.997 |
1 |
<0.001 |
1.696
|
Income more than $35,000 (reference: $35,000 or less) |
−0.111 |
0.079 |
1.978 |
1 |
0.160 |
0.895 |
Education (reference: high school or below) |
|
|
|
Some college |
0.193 |
0.186 |
1.081 |
1 |
0.299 |
1.213 |
Associates/bachelor’s degree |
0.329 |
0.172 |
3.636 |
1 |
0.057 |
1.389 |
Graduate degree |
0.622 |
0.180 |
11.873 |
1 |
0.001 |
1.862
|
Part-time/full-time students (reference: not a student) |
0.749 |
0.080 |
86.669 |
1 |
<0.001 |
2.114
|
Marital status (reference: single) |
|
|
|
|
Divorced, separated, or widowed |
−0.577 |
0.186 |
9.598 |
1 |
0.002 |
0.561 |
Married or living with partner |
0.359 |
0.104 |
12.045 |
1 |
0.001 |
1.432 |
No. minors in the household |
0.241 |
0.039 |
38.268 |
1 |
<0.001 |
1.272 |
Full-time employee (reference: other than full-time) |
0.794 |
0.095 |
70.618 |
1 |
<0.001 |
2.213
|
State of residence (reference: northeast) |
|
|
|
|
Midwest |
−0.303 |
0.125 |
5.909 |
1 |
0.015 |
0.739 |
South |
−0.112 |
0.105 |
1.142 |
1 |
0.285 |
0.894 |
West |
0.146 |
0.110 |
1.778 |
1 |
0.182 |
1.157 |
Veteran (reference: not a veteran) |
0.358 |
0.100 |
12.921 |
1 |
<0.001 |
1.431 |
No. physical health conditions |
0.108 |
0.016 |
45.914 |
1 |
<0.001 |
1.114 |
Any lifetime history of psychiatric diagnosis (reference: no lifetime history of psychiatric diagnosis) |
1.131 |
0.088 |
164.636 |
1 |
<0.001 |
3.100
|
Have family/friend tested positive for COVID-19 (reference: no one tested positive) |
0.378 |
0.083 |
20.566 |
1 |
<0.001 |
1.459 |
Tested positive for COVID-19 |
0.191 |
0.138 |
1.919 |
1 |
0.166 |
1.210 |
MOS Social Support Survey score |
0.004 |
0.007 |
0.261 |
1 |
0.609 |
1.004 |
Total R
2
|
0.251 |
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Odds ratios >1.50 were bolded.
MOS, Medical Outcomes Study.
Concerns About Job Automation During COVID-19 Pandemic
In the total sample (N = 6607), participants rated their worries about job automation as a mean of 1.78 (SD, 1.08) on a 5-point scale or a weighted 57.5% reported being at least “slightly” worried about job automation. When participants were divided into 2 groups, 774 (weighted 9.6%) were grouped in the AC group (ie, reported being “moderately” or “extremely” worried about job automation) and 5824 (weighted 90.4%) were grouped in the AU group (ie, reported “not at all,” “slightly,” or “somewhat moderately” worried about job automation).
As shown in Table 4, the AC group was significantly younger, had higher levels of education but lower income, and was more likely to be male, from a racial/ethnic minority group, attending school, married/living with partner, have more minor children, employed full-time, living in the South region of the country, and is a veteran than the AU group. The AC group also reported significantly more physical health conditions, was more likely to have a history of psychiatric diagnoses, and was more likely to have tested positive for COVID-19 as well as have a loved one who tested positive for COVID-19 than the AU group. Regarding job changes, the AC group was significantly more likely to report experiencing any job automation, move to virtual communication, and reduced work hours/salary during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the AU group.
TABLE 4 -
Comparison of Characteristics between US Adults With Different Levels of Worry About
Job Automation
|
Total (N = 6,598) |
AC (n = 774) |
AU (n = 5,824) |
ToD |
Raw n/Mean |
Weighted %/SD |
Raw n/Mean |
Weighted %/SD |
Raw n/Mean |
Weighted %/SD |
χ
2 or t Test |
Background characteristics |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Age |
48.61 |
17.70 |
40.75 |
12.54 |
49.44 |
17.97 |
19.462*** |
Male |
2,967 |
42.6% |
439 |
56.0% |
2,528 |
41.2% |
78.514*** |
Race |
|
|
|
|
|
|
324.742*** |
White |
4,999 |
78.0% |
447 |
60.2% |
4,552 |
79.8% |
|
Black |
890 |
12.1% |
226 |
29.6% |
664 |
10.3% |
|
Asian |
484 |
3.7% |
74 |
5.5% |
410 |
3.5% |
|
Other |
225 |
6.2% |
27 |
4.6% |
198 |
6.4% |
|
Ethnicity, Hispanic |
947 |
17.2% |
205 |
38.1% |
742 |
14.9% |
325.969*** |
Income level |
34,733.60 |
21,869.11 |
32,253.19 |
24,082.87 |
34,997.12 |
21,605.34 |
3.387** |
Education |
|
|
|
|
|
|
80.131*** |
High school or below |
550 |
8.5% |
51 |
7.5% |
499 |
8.6% |
|
Some college |
1,302 |
22.1% |
115 |
14.5% |
1,187 |
22.9% |
|
Associates/bachelor’s degree |
3,351 |
48.5% |
377 |
47.1% |
2,974 |
48.7% |
|
Graduate degree |
1,395 |
20.9% |
231 |
30.9% |
1,164 |
19.8% |
|
Part-time/full-time student |
1,595 |
18.3% |
290 |
37.3% |
1,305 |
16.3% |
256.898*** |
Marital status |
|
|
|
|
|
|
126.976*** |
Single |
2,161 |
24.9% |
204 |
21.8% |
1,957 |
25.2% |
|
Divorced/separated/widowed |
623 |
20.7% |
45 |
8.4% |
578 |
22.0% |
|
Married/living with partner |
3,814 |
54.4% |
525 |
69.8% |
3,289 |
52.8% |
|
No. minors in household |
1.62 |
0.93 |
2.10 |
0.99 |
1.56 |
0.91 |
−15.962*** |
Currently employed full-time |
3,736 |
46.2% |
540 |
68.5% |
3,196 |
43.9% |
211.522*** |
Region |
|
|
|
|
|
|
91.009*** |
Northeast |
1,235 |
16.8% |
162 |
18.7% |
1,073 |
16.6% |
|
Midwest |
1,279 |
20.6% |
124 |
15.4% |
1,155 |
21.2% |
|
South |
2,547 |
38.9% |
239 |
31.0% |
2,308 |
39.8% |
|
West |
1,537 |
23.6% |
249 |
34.9% |
1,288 |
22.4% |
|
Military veteran |
814 |
15.2% |
187 |
27.6% |
627 |
13.9% |
126.452*** |
Clinical characteristics |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No. physical health conditions |
2.04 |
2.39 |
2.59 |
3.68 |
1.98 |
2.20 |
−5.118*** |
Any lifetime history of psychiatric diagnosis |
3,352 |
43.1% |
545 |
72.1% |
2.807 |
40.1% |
361.523*** |
Tested positive for COVID-19 |
353 |
4.4% |
119 |
15.7% |
234 |
3.1% |
330.468*** |
Had loved one test positive for COVID-19 |
1,609 |
20.9% |
307 |
40.1% |
1,302 |
18.9% |
236.863*** |
MOS Social Support Survey score |
21.21 |
6.26 |
21.14 |
5.82 |
21.21 |
6.31 |
0.348 |
Job changes during COVID-19 pandemic |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Automated your entire job (ie, used robots/machines/machines) |
442 |
5.6% |
144 |
19.5% |
298 |
4.2% |
383.861*** |
Automated aspects of your job |
860 |
10.8% |
230 |
31.1% |
630 |
8.6% |
455.753*** |
Automated some or all aspects of your job |
1,141 |
14.3% |
313 |
41.4% |
828 |
11.4% |
637.649*** |
Moved to virtual communication (eg, videoconference calls) |
2,425 |
31.4% |
311 |
40.6% |
2,114 |
30.5% |
41.523*** |
Reduced your paid hours/reduced salary |
1,431 |
18.6% |
252 |
33.2% |
1,179 |
17.0% |
150.381*** |
Business closed |
45 |
0.8% |
2 |
0.3% |
43 |
0.9% |
3.279 |
Implemented social distancing measures (eg, masks) |
142 |
2.1% |
5 |
0.6% |
137 |
2.2% |
10.940*** |
Other/more responsibility and tasks |
27 |
0.4% |
0 |
0.0% |
27 |
0.4% |
3.731 |
Raise/increase in work hours |
21 |
0.4% |
0 |
0.0% |
21 |
0.4% |
3.730 |
Laid off/furloughed |
144 |
2.0% |
18 |
1.8% |
126 |
2.0% |
0.309 |
Any job change (ie, any of the above) |
4,492 |
58.0% |
663 |
84.7% |
3,829 |
55.2% |
309.805*** |
Any lifetime history of psychiatric diagnosis included schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder, alcohol use disorder, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorder, major depressive disorder, drug use disorder, and traumatic brain injury.
*P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001.
AC, automation concerned; AU, automation unconcerned; MOS, Medical Outcomes Study; ToD, test of difference.
Table 5 shows results of a multiple regression analysis that included significant variables found in the previously mentioned bivariate analysis. Younger age, male sex, racial/ethnic minority status, student status, number of minors in the household, residence in the Northeast, veteran status, any lifetime history of psychiatric diagnoses, testing positive for COVID-19, and experiencing any job changes were each independently associated with greater concerns about job automation (all P < 0.001). Together, these variables explained approximately 27% of the variance in concerns about job automation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
TABLE 5 -
Multiple Regression Analysis of Characteristics Associated With
Job Automation
|
B
|
SE |
β |
t
|
P
|
Age |
−0.005 |
0.001 |
−0.076 |
−6.036 |
<0.001 |
Sex: male (reference: not a male) |
0.187 |
0.02 |
0.085 |
9.218 |
<0.001 |
Race (reference: White) |
|
|
|
|
|
Black |
0.364 |
0.03 |
0.109 |
12.052 |
<0.001 |
Asian |
0.328 |
0.051 |
0.057 |
6.448 |
<0.001 |
Other |
−0.010 |
0.04 |
−0.002 |
−0.252 |
0.801 |
Hispanic (reference: non-Hispanic) |
0.233 |
0.027 |
0.081 |
8.611 |
<0.001 |
Income |
<0.000 |
0.000 |
−0.037 |
−3.768 |
<0.001 |
Education (reference: high school or below) |
|
|
|
|
Some college |
−0.066 |
0.038 |
−0.025 |
−1.74 |
0.082 |
Associates/bachelor’s degree |
−0.055 |
0.035 |
−0.025 |
−1.562 |
0.118 |
Graduate degree |
−0.062 |
0.039 |
−0.023 |
−1.576 |
0.115 |
Part-time/Full-time students (reference: not a student) |
0.176 |
0.027 |
0.063 |
6.430 |
<0.001 |
Marital status (reference: single) |
|
|
|
|
|
Divorced, separated, or widowed |
0.095 |
0.034 |
0.036 |
2.838 |
0.005 |
Married or living with partner |
0.057 |
0.025 |
0.026 |
2.237 |
0.025 |
No. minors in the Household |
0.078 |
0.011 |
0.067 |
6.858 |
<0.001 |
Full-time employee (reference: other than full-time) |
0.034 |
0.024 |
0.016 |
1.405 |
0.160 |
State of residence (reference: northeast) |
|
|
|
|
Midwest |
−0.18 |
0.031 |
−0.067 |
−5.819 |
<0.001 |
South |
−0.176 |
0.028 |
−0.079 |
−6.375 |
<0.001 |
West |
0.014 |
0.030 |
0.006 |
0.482 |
0.630 |
Veteran (reference: not a veteran) |
0.197 |
0.030 |
0.065 |
6.581 |
<0.001 |
No. physical health conditions |
0.013 |
0.004 |
0.028 |
2.890 |
0.004 |
Any lifetime history of psychiatric diagnosis |
0.259 |
0.021 |
0.118 |
12.096 |
<0.001 |
Have family/friend tested positive for COVID-19 (reference: no one tested positive) |
0.044 |
0.025 |
0.017 |
1.758 |
0.079 |
Tested positive for COVID-19 |
0.365 |
0.052 |
0.069 |
7.011 |
<0.001 |
Job change due to COVID-19 social distancing measures (reference: no change) |
0.197 |
0.030 |
0.065 |
6.581 |
<0.001 |
Total R
2
|
0.272 |
|
|
|
|
DISCUSSION
This national study examined experiences and concerns with job automation among middle- and low-income US adults during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of the participants reported that their employer changed their job in some way during the pandemic, which is not surprising given the unique COVID-19 social distancing measures implemented across industries impacting employment and wages.12–14 Our results revealed that 19.1% of participants reported that their jobs were entirely or partially automated during the COVID-19 pandemic consistent with increased demand for job automation in various sectors during the pandemic.15,16 The Pew Research Center recently surveyed Americans regarding job automation and found that approximately 48% of participants reported that job automation in the workplace has mostly hurt American workers.17 Some experts have described the COVID-19 pandemic as contributing to the acceleration toward a “fourth industrial revolution.”18
Thus, it seems justified that we found more than half of participants reported at least some concerns about job automation, although only approximately one-tenth were characterized as moderately/extremely concerned about job automation. We did find that individuals with certain backgrounds were at greater risk of reporting job automation than others. Specifically, males, racial/ethnic minorities, students, and those with any history of psychiatric disorders reported experiencing job automation at higher rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be due to the jobs that individuals with these characteristics are more likely to hold, an adverse impact on individuals with these characteristics, or some other vulnerabilities associated with these characteristics that put them at risk of job automation. Because there is already great concern about racial/ethnic health disparities, it may be important to examine this further because disparities in job automation may exacerbate health disparities. Similarly, individuals with psychiatric problems may need additional employment support given the challenges they already face obtaining and retaining employment. Some vocational rehabilitation programs also place individuals in jobs that have high probabilities of being automated.3
We found characteristics associated with job automation were also associated with concerns about job automation, including individuals from racial/ethnic minority backgrounds and those with psychiatric histories reporting greater job automation concerns. Students, veterans, those who tested positive for COVID-19, and those who experienced job changes during the COVID-19 pandemic were also more likely to report job automation concerns. Many of these individuals were directly or indirectly impacted by changes in the nature of work during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have shaped their concerns about job automation. Vulnerable populations such as those who frequently interacted with others (eg, students) or those with health conditions and disabilities were advised to take extra precautions during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have caused real concerns about job automation.18,19 The findings are also consistent with studies that have found many individuals with disabilities are concerned about losing their job due to the COVID-19.20,21 Taken together, these findings suggest that job automation has impacted middle- and low-income US adults during the COVID-19 pandemic and thus concerns about job automation may be warranted, especially among those from certain backgrounds who may be particularly vulnerable. Initiatives to plan for job automation should be informed by these vulnerabilities.
There were several study limitations worth mentioning. First, the data were cross-sectional and thus no inferences can be made about the causality between variables. We mostly focused on job automation as a potential threat, but others have pointed to potential benefits, which may be important to not dismiss.22,23 Second, information about job changes was based on self-report and not validated by employers or companies. Third, we did not have data on specific employment industries or job types, which likely influence experiences and concerns with job automation. These limitations notwithstanding, the strengths of the study include the use of a national sample, focus on middle- and low-income adults, and unique examination of a range of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with job automation concerns. The findings capture the extent to which different segments of the US population has been affected by job automation during the COVID-19 pandemic and are concerned about job automation, which will be important in planning recovery efforts after pandemic.
REFERENCES
1. Frey CB, Osborne M.
The Future of Employment. Oxford, UK: University of Oxford; 2013.
2. Wike R, Stokes B. In advanced and emerging economies alike, worries about job automationPew Research Center, Global Attitudes & Trends. 2018. Available at:
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/09/13/in-advanced-and-emerging-economies-alike-worries-about-job-automation. Accessed October 5, 2021.
3. Tsai J, Mehta K, Elbogen EB. The potential impact of
job automation on veterans in vocational rehabilitation programs.
Psychiatr Serv. 2020;72:329–332.
4. Nam T. Citizen attitudes about job replacement by robotic automation.
Futures. 2019;109:39–49.
5. Kim YJ, Kim K, Lee S. The rise of technological unemployment and its implications on the future macroeconomic landscape.
Futures. 2017;87:1–9.
6. Lund S, Ellingrud K, Hancock B, Manyika J.
COVID-19 and jobs: monitoring the US impact on people and places. McKinsey Global Institute; 2020. Available at:
https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/files/6204_en.pdf. Accessed October 5, 2021.
7. Coombs C. Will
COVID-19 be the tipping point for the intelligent automation of work? A review of the debate and implications for research.
Int J Inf Manag. 2020;55:102182.
8. Livanos I, Ravanos P. Job loss and
COVID-19: do remote work, automation and tasks at work matter?: The European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training; 2021. Available at:
https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/files/6204_en.pdf. Accessed October 5, 2021.
9. Kees J, Berry C, Burton S, Sheehan K. An analysis of data quality: professional panels, student subject pools, and Amazon's Mechanical Turk.
J Advert. 2017;46:141–155.
10. Thomas MM, Harpaz-Rotem I, Tsai J, Southwick SM, Pietrzak RH. Mental and physical health conditions in US combat veterans: results from the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study.
Prim Care Companion CNS Disord. 2017;19.
11. Holden L, Lee C, Hockey R, Ware RS, Dobson AJ. Validation of the MOS Social Support Survey 6-item (MOS-SSS-6) measure with two large population-based samples of Australian women.
Qual Life Res. 2014;23:2849–2853.
12. Béland LP, Brodeur A, Wright T. The short-term economic consequences of
Covid-19: exposure to disease, remote work and government response. 2020. Available at;
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3584922. Accessed October 5, 2021.
13. Fana M, Torrejón Pérez S, Fernández-Macías E. Employment impact of
Covid-19 crisis: from short term effects to long terms prospects.
J Ind Bus Econ. 2020;47:391–410.
14. Spurk D, Straub C. Flexible employment relationships and careers in times of the
COVID-19 pandemic.
J Vocat Behav. 2020;119:103435.
15. Leduc S, Liu Z. Can pandemic-induced job uncertainty stimulate automation? : Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; 2020. Available at:
https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2020-19. Accessed October 5, 2021.
16. Shutters ST. Modelling long-term
COVID-19 impacts on the US workforce of 2029.
PLoS One. 2021;16:e0260797.
17. Parker K, Morin R, Horowitz JM.
The Future of Work in the Automated Workplace. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center; 2019.
18. Karr J, Loh K, San Andres E.
COVID-19, 4IR and the Future of Work. In:
APEC Policy Support Unit Brief. Singapore: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation; 2020.
19. Hessel P, Christiansen S, Skirbekk V. Poor health as a potential risk factor for job loss due to automation: the case of Norway.
Occup Environ Med. 2018;75:227–230.
20. Umucu E. Functional limitations and worrying to lose employment among individuals with chronic conditions and disabilities during
COVID-19: a hierarchical logistic regression model.
J Vocational Rehabil. 2021;54:25–32.
21. Emerson E, Stancliffe R, Hatton C, et al. The impact of disability on employment and financial security following the outbreak of the 2020
COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.
J Public Health. 2021;43:472–478.
22. Boyd JA, Huettinger M. Smithian insights on automation and the future of work.
Futures 2019;111:104–115.
23. Bhargava A, Bester M, Bolton L. Employees’ perceptions of the implementation of robotics, artificial intelligence, and automation (RAIA) on job satisfaction, job security, and employability.
J Technol Behav Sci. 2021;6:106–113.