Abdominal Imaging Findings on Computed Tomography as a Tool for COVID-19 Mortality Risk Assessment: Comparison With Chest Radiograph Severity Scores

Abstract

Objective 

To quantify the association between computed tomography abdomen and pelvis with contrast (CTAP) findings and chest radiograph (CXR) severity score, and the incremental effect of incorporating CTAP findings into predictive models of COVID-19 mortality.

Methods 

This retrospective study was performed at a large quaternary care medical center. All adult patients who presented to our institution between March and June 2020 with the diagnosis of COVID-19 and had a CXR up to 48 hours before a CTAP were included. Primary outcomes were the severity of lung disease before CTAP and mortality within 14 and 30 days. Logistic regression models were constructed to quantify the association between CXR score and CTAP findings. Penalized logistic regression models and random forests were constructed to identify key predictors (demographics, CTAP findings, and CXR score) of mortality. The discriminatory performance of these models, with and without CTAP findings, was summarized using area under the characteristic (AUC) curves.

Results 

One hundred ninety-five patients (median age, 63 years; 119 men) were included. The odds of having CTAP findings was 3.89 times greater when a CXR score was classified as severe compared with mild (P = 0.002). When CTAP findings were included in the feature set, the AUCs for 14-day mortality were 0.67 (penalized logistic regression) and 0.71 (random forests). Similar values for 30-day mortality were 0.76 and 0.75. When CTAP findings were omitted, all AUC values were attenuated.

Conclusions 

The CTAP findings were associated with more severe CXR score and may serve as predictors of COVID-19 mortality.