Electrocardiographic Measures and Prediction of Cardiovascular and Noncardiovascular Death in CKD

Abstract

Limited studies have assessed the resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) as a screening test in intermediate risk populations. We evaluated whether a panel of common ECG parameters are independent predictors of mortality risk in a prospective cohort of participants with CKD. The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study enrolled 3939 participants with eGFR<70 ml/min per 1.73 m² from June 2003 to September 2008. Over a median follow-up of 7.5 years, 750 participants died. After adjudicating the initial 497 deaths, we identified 256 cardiovascular and 241 noncardiovascular deaths. ECG metrics were independent risk markers for cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval): PR interval ≥200 ms (1.62, 1.19–2.19); QRS interval 100–119 ms (1.64, 1.20–2.25) and ≥120 ms (1.75, 1.17–2.62); corrected QT (QTc) interval ≥450 ms in men or ≥460 ms in women (1.72, 1.19–2.49); and heart rate 60–90 beats per minute (1.21, 0.89–1.63) and ≥90 beats per minute (2.35, 1.03–5.33). Most ECG measures were stronger markers of risk for cardiovascular death than for all-cause mortality or noncardiovascular death. Adding these intervals to a comprehensive model of cardiorenal risk factors increased the C-statistic for cardiovascular death from 0.77 to 0.81 (P<0.001). Furthermore, adding ECG metrics to the model adjusted for standard risk factors resulted in a net reclassification of 12.1% (95% confidence interval 8.1%–16.0%). These data suggest common ECG metrics are independent risk factors for cardiovascular death and enhance the ability to predict death events in a population with CKD.