To estimate the change in AIDS incubation time during three periods characterized by different availability of antiretroviral treatments, data from the French Hospital Database on HIV of 4702 HIV-1-positive subjects with a documented date of infection were analyzed. Times from seroconversion to AIDS were compared in three periods: period 1 from January 1992 to June 1995 (monotherapy); period 2 from July 1995 to June 1996 (dual therapy); and period 3 from July 1996 to June 1999 (triple therapy). Nonparametric survival analyses were performed to account for staggered entries in the database and during each period. From periods 1 to 3, antiretroviral treatments were initiated earlier after infection, more subjects were treated, and the nature of regimens changed (25.6% of subjects were treated with monotherapy in period 1, 34.6% were treated with dual therapy in period 2, and 53.4% were treated with triple therapy in period 3). Compared with period 1, the relative hazard (RH) of AIDS was 0.31 in period 3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.24-0.39). When com- paring period 3 with period 2, the RH of AIDS was 0.36 (CI: 0.29-0.45). Assuming a log normal distribution, the median time to AIDS was estimated as 8.0 years in period 1 (CI: 6.0-10.6), 9.8 years in period 2 (CI: 8.5, 11.2), and 20.0 years in period 3 (CI: 17.1-23.3). This lengthening in time to AIDS from 1992 to 1999 was particularly marked in the period after the introduction of triple therapy, including protease inhibitors.
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Manuscript received July 9, 2001; Accepted January 16, 2002.
© 2002 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.