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UNCERTAINTIES ANALYSIS FOR THE PLUTONIUM DOSIMETRY MODEL, DOSES-2005, USING MAYAK BIOASSAY DATA

Bess, John D.*; Krahenbuhl, Melinda P.*; Miller, Scott C.; Slaughter, David M.*; Khokhryakov, Viktor V.; Khokhryakov, Valentin F.; Suslova, Klara G.; Vostrotin, Vadim V.

doi: 10.1097/01.HP.0000266741.42070.e8
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The Doses-2005 model is a combination of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) models modified using data from the Mayak Production Association cohort. Surrogate doses from inhaled plutonium can be assigned to approximately 29% of the Mayak workers using their urine bioassay measurements and other history records. The purpose of this study was to quantify and qualify the uncertainties in the estimates for radiation doses calculated with the Doses-2005 model by using Monte Carlo methods and perturbation theory. The average uncertainty in the yearly dose estimates for most organs was approximately 100% regardless of the transportability classification. The relative source of the uncertainties comes from three main sources: 45% from the urine bioassay measurements, 29% from the Doses-2005 model parameters, and 26% from the reference masses for the organs. The most significant reduction in the overall dose uncertainties would result from improved methods in bioassay measurement with additional improvements generated through further model refinement. Additional uncertainties were determined for dose estimates resulting from changes in the transportability classification and the smoking toggle. A comparison was performed to determine the effect of using the model with data from either urine bioassay or autopsy data; no direct correlation could be established. Analysis of the model using autopsy data and incorporation of results from other research efforts that have utilized plutonium ICRP models could improve the Doses-2005 model and reduce the overall uncertainty in the dose estimates.

* Center for Excellence in Nuclear Technology, Engineering, and Research (CENTER), 50 So. Central Campus Drive, Rm 1206, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112; Division of Radiobiology, 729 Arapeen Drive, Suite 2334, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84108; Southern Urals Biophysics Institute, Ozyorsk Road 19, Ozyorsk, Chelyabinsk Region, Russia 456780.

For correspondence contact: M. P. Krahenbuhl, Center for Excellence in Nuclear Technology, Engineering, and Research (CENTER), 50 So. Central Campus Drive, Rm 1206, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, or email at mpk@nuclear.utah.edu.

(Manuscript accepted 28 March 2007)

©2007Health Physics Society