Lung cancer cause nearly 1.76 million deaths worldwide in 2018. In 2011, the National-Lung-Cancer-Screening-Trial showed 20% relative risk reduction with LDCT and subsequently led to the current USPSTF screening guidelines. However, the predominant focus on elderly, Caucasian questions its generalizability to communities with young, African Americans such as our institution. Hence, the objective of our study is to investigate the need to modify the current screening guidelines at our institution by assessing the applicability of newer individual risk-based prediction models for LDCT screening.
This is a retrospective observational cohort study of newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at LSU Health Sciences Center Shreveport from 2011 to 2015. One-third of the patients did not meet the current USPSTF screening guidelines. We categorized them into high-risk (groups1 and 2), moderate-risk, and low-risk according to 2018 NCCN Lung Cancer Screening Guidelines Version 1.2020. The high-risk groups were differentiated using the Tammemagi lung cancer risk calculator.
Among those who did not meet the screening guidelines, nearly 50% were African American, 95% with known smoking history, and 80% diagnosed at advanced stage at the time of diagnosis. After employing the Tammemagi Risk based calculator, 12.5% were categorized into high-risk group 2, who are also eligible for annual LDCT.
The current USPSTF guidelines have failed in our population consisting of young African American smokers, questioning the health disparity in medicine. By employing individual risk-based prediction models, we could potentially identify tailored high-risk populations leading to appropriate use of LDCT screening.