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Effectiveness of Aedes Index and Breteau Index in Predicting Dengue Outbreaks in Selangor, Malaysia

Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Sani, Jamiatul Aida

doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000392114.75536.dc
Abstracts: ISEE 22nd Annual Conference, Seoul, Korea, 28 August–1 September 2010: Emerging Infectious Disease and Environmental Factors

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Abstracts published in Epidemiology have been reviewed by the societies at whose meetings the abstracts have been accepted for presentation. These abstracts have not undergone review by the Editorial Board of Epidemiology.


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Dengue is the most important vector borne disease in Malaysia and globally due to its increasing incidence over the years. Climate changes coupled with rapid urban development result in increasing the breeding and survival of Aedes mosquitoes, the vector for dengue, hence the success of dengue virus transmission. This study aims to identify the relationship between Aedes indices (Aedes Index [AI] and Breteau Index [BI]) and dengue outbreak and study the effectiveness of using Aedes indices to predict dengue outbreaks.

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A cross-sectional study using secondary data on dengue cases notified to Sepang District Health Office 2004 to 2007 was performed.

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This study found an increase in dengue incidence over the years in Sepang. Most dengue cases occur among males (62.3%), age group 21–30 years and Malays with upward trend in foreigners. Almost all dengue notifications came from hospital, 68% of cases were confirmed by lab. Majority of dengue outbreaks occurred in localities with low Aedes indices, although significant relationships between Aedes indices and dengue outbreak were found (AI: >5% and outbreaks in 2007 [P < 0.001], BI: 20 and outbreaks in 2007) p1% and outbreaks in 2006 (P = 0.029), in 2007 (P < 0.001) and BI 5 and outbreaks in 2007 (P < 0.001). On further analysis, Aedes indices were shown not to be effective in predicting dengue outbreaks (AUC for AI 0.572, AUC for BI 0.571).

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This study concluded that Aedes and Breteau indices are not effective in predicting dengue outbreaks.

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