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Spatial Analysis of Air Pollution and Mortality in Los Angeles

Jerrett, Michael*; Burnet, Richard T.; Ma, Renjun; Pope, C Arden III§; Krewski, Daniel; Newbold, Bruce; Thurston, George**; Shi, Yuanli; Finkelstein, Norm; Calle, Eugenia E.††; Thun, Micheal J.††

ISEE/ISEA 2006 Conference Abstracts Supplement: Symposium Abstracts: Abstracts

*Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California; †Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada; ‡University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick; §Brigham Young University, Salt Lake City, Utah; the ¶University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; ∥McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; **New York University, New York, NY; and the ††American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia


Symposium Title: Longitudinal Studies of Particulate Matter-Related Mortality and Morbidity

Symposium Organizers: Barbara Glenn* and Jane Warren† *U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and †Health Effects Institute


The assessment of air pollution exposure using only community average concentrations may lead to measurement error that lowers estimates of the health burden attributable to poor air quality. To test this hypothesis, we modeled the association between air pollution and mortality using small-area exposure measures in Los Angeles, California. Specifically, data on 22,905 subjects were extracted from the American Cancer Society cohort for the period 1982–2000 (5856 deaths). Pollution exposures were interpolated from 23 fine particle (PM2.5) and 42 ozone (O3) fixed-site monitors. Proximity to expressways was tested as a measure of traffic pollution. We assessed associations in standard and spatial multilevel Cox regression models. After controlling for 44 individual covariates, all-cause mortality had a relative risk (RR) of 1.17 (95% confidence interval: 1.05–1.30) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 and a RR of 1.11 (0.99–1.25) with maximal control for both individual and contextual confounders. The RRs for mortality resulting from ischemic heart disease and lung cancer deaths were elevated, in the range of 1.24 to 1.6, depending on the model used. These PM results were robust to adjustments for O3 and expressway exposure. Our results suggest the chronic health effects associated with within-city gradients in exposure to PM2.5 may be even larger than previously reported across metropolitan areas. We observed effects nearly 3 times greater than in models relying on comparisons between communities. We also found specificity in cause of death, with PM2.5 associated more strongly with ischemic heart disease than with cardiopulmonary or all-cause mortality.

© 2006 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.