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The Sixteenth Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE): Abstracts

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE INCIDENCE OF CRYPTOSPORIDIOSIS IN BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA

Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

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ISEE-229

Study Objectives:

To examine the potential impact of climate variability on the transmission of cryptosporidiosis infection in Brisbane, Australia.

Methods:

Data on climate variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1 January 1996 – 31 December 2001, respectively. Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with negative binomial link was performed after seasonal component and trend were removed using time series decomposition method.

Results:

The results of negative binomial regression models show that the incidence of cryptosporidiosis infection was significantly associated with maximum temperature at a lag of 1 month (B=0.34, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.06 to 0.61), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at a lag of 2 months (B=−0.01, 95%CI −0.01 to −0.00) in Brisbane. However, no significant relationships were found for minimum temperature, rainfall and humidity. The goodness-of-fit analyses show that the negative binomial model fitted the data well (deviance/DF: 1.02).

Conclusions:

Climate variability may have played a significant role in the transmission of cryptosporidiosis in Brisbane, Australia. Increased temperature may enhance cryptosporidiosis transmission in water and food.

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