Violence is a leading cause of death and an important public health threat, particularly among adolescents and young adults. However, the environmental causes of violent behavior are not well understood. Emerging evidence suggests exposure to air pollution may be associated with aggressive or impulsive reactions in people.
We applied a two-stage hierarchical time series model to estimate change in risk of violent and non-violent criminal behavior associated with short-term air pollution in U.S. counties (2000-2013). We used daily monitoring data for ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from the Environmental Protection Agency and daily crime counts from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. We evaluated the exposure–response relationship and assessed differences in risk by community characteristics of poverty, urbanicity, race, and age.
Our analysis spans 301 counties in 34 states, representing 86.1 million people and 721,674 days. Each 10µg/m3 change in daily PM2.5 was associated with a 1.17% (95% CI: 0.90, 1.43) and a 10ppb change in ozone with a 0.59% (95% CI: 0.41, 0.78) relative risk increase (RRI) for violent crime. However, we observed no risk increase for non-violent property crime due to PM2.5 (RRI: 0.11%; 95% CI: -0.09, 0.31) or ozone (RRI: -0.05%; 95% CI: -0.22, 0.12). Our results were robust across all community types, except rural regions. Exposure–response curves indicated increased violent crime risk at concentrations below regulatory standards.
Our results suggest that short-term changes in ambient air pollution may be associated with greater risk of violent behavior, regardless of community type.
a Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Minnesota School of Public Health
b Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University
c Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University
d Department of Statistics, Colorado State University
Conflicts of Interest: None to declare
Funding Support: None to declare
Data: All crime data, air pollution data, weather data, and community variables are from publicly available online resources. Computing code will be made available upon request.
Corresponding Author: Jesse D Berman, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, 420 Delaware Street SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, Tel: 612-626-0923, Email: email@example.com