Infectious DiseasesEstimating Serotype-specific Efficacy of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Using Hierarchical ModelsWarren, Joshua L.a; Weinberger, Daniel M.bAuthor Information From the aDepartment of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT bDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT. Submitted May 10, 2019; accepted October 27, 2019. D.M.W. is supported by R01-AI123208 and R01-AI137093 from National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health and by OPP1176267 from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Disclosure: Merck: D.M.W. has received consulting fees from Pfizer, GSK, and Affinivax. None of these entities were involved with the conduct of this study. The other author has no conflicts to report. Availability of data and analysis scripts: https://github.com/weinbergerlab/capita-hierarchical Correspondence: Daniel M. Weinberger, Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, PO Box 208034, New Haven, CT 06520. E-mail: [email protected]. Epidemiology: March 2020 - Volume 31 - Issue 2 - p 259-262 doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001135 Buy Metrics Abstract Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines target 10 or 13 specific serotypes. To evaluate the overall efficacy of these products, the vaccine-targeted serotypes are typically aggregated into a single group. However, it is often desirable to evaluate variations in effects for different serotypes. These serotype-specific estimates are often based on small counts, resulting in a high degree of uncertainty (i.e., large standard errors and wide confidence intervals). An alternative is to use a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model, which estimates overall effectiveness while simultaneously providing estimates of serotype-specific vaccine effects. These shrunken serotype-specific estimators often have smaller mean squared errors (MSEs) than unbiased versions due to a large decrease in posterior uncertainty. We reanalyzed published data from a randomized controlled trial on the efficacy of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) against community-acquired pneumonia caused by vaccine-targeted serotype using a hierarchical model. This model provides a potential framework for obtaining estimates of serotype-specific vaccine effects with reduced MSEs. Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.