OPS 34: Health impact assessments of policies, Room 210, Floor 2, August 28, 2019, 1:30 PM - 3:00 PM
Background/Aim: Previous studies found the climate change-related factors have led to the overall decrease in the DTR during recent decades. Therefore, the DTR-related excessive mortality is also anticipated to be decreased. However, recent studies investigated the increase in DTR-related mortality in warmer climate conditions. This result provides hypothesis that the DTR-related excess mortality may not be reduced under climate warming. Thus, this study aims to observe the effect of future diurnal temperature range, and to predict the diurnal temperature range-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in multi-country scale.
Methods: We collected historical time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 24 countries from 1972 to 2015, and estimated an association between an average temperature and the DTR-related risk of mortality using a meta-regression model. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971–2099, with five circulation models. We projected the DTR-related excess mortality under each climate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with a consideration for positive interaction between local average temperature and the DTR-related mortality.
Results: We estimated future excess deaths related to DTR under various climate scenarios and showed that the expected DTR-related excess mortality from the interaction model was higher than of those when interaction was not considered in the total population. In addition, as the emission conditions were higher for greenhouse gas emission scenario, the greater the DTR-related excess mortality was predicted.
Conclusions: This study reports that the DTR-related excess mortality may exist in the near future. Given climatic warming, this study also shows that the DTR-related excess mortality is expected to be higher compared to the results from the models without DTR-temperature interactions.
On behalf of the MCC Collaborative Research Network.