APPROACHES TO PREVENTION IN ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME
Prevention in epidemiologic and public health terms has several levels: primary, secondary, tertiary, and more recently, quaternary . Each level of prevention has different goals, targets different populations, and is initiated at different times in the course of the disease (see Fig. 1). In primary prevention, the goal is to avoid development of a disease or condition. In general, primary prevention would target patients before or soon after they develop a risk factor for ARDS prior to any signs of respiratory insufficiency (e.g., simvastatin in patients before elective esophagectomies ). In secondary prevention, the goal is to detect and treat a preclinical condition early to reduce the severity and minimize or eliminate the sequelae of the condition. Inherent in secondary prevention is the need for screening to identify patients early. An example of secondary prevention in ARDS may be an intervention targeting patients with hypoxia or severe sepsis but who do not fulfill all criteria for ARDS yet. Tertiary prevention aims to reduce the impact of an existing, recognized condition with the goal of improving survival, function, and quality of life. Tertiary prevention requires accurate diagnosis and follow-up of patients with the condition of interest. Prior trials focused on improving mortality in ARDS represent one aspect of tertiary prevention in ARDS. However, tertiary prevention could also include clinical trials to improve cognitive or physical function in ARDS survivors. Quaternary prevention aims to identify patients at risk for excessive or unnecessary interventions with the goal of preventing additional interventions that may not be beneficial and to suggest ethically acceptable, alternative therapies instead . Quaternary prevention is of high importance in acute critical illness, including ARDS as reflected by the Choosing Wisely campaign in critical care .
Within this framework, both universal, selective, and indicated prevention strategies can be applied. For example, a universal preventive strategy would reach a broad population without regard to individual risk for the condition. Enrolling all patients on mechanical ventilation without ARDS is an example of a universal prevention strategy for ARDS. A selective preventive strategy would target subgroups of patients at increased risk for a condition (e.g., patients admitted to the hospital with pneumonia or sepsis at risk for ARDS). An indicated preventive strategy would target individuals at particularly high risk for the condition with possible early signs of the condition and aims to prevent the individual from progressing to the disease of interest (e.g., pneumonia patients with a history of alcohol abuse requiring more than 4l nasal cannula of oxygen at presentation). A clinical trial that uses a clinical prediction score to identify patients at high risk for developing ARDS for inclusion into a prevention trial would be utilizing an indicated prevention strategy. Given the rapidity with which ARDS develops, there may be overlap between selective and indicative prevention strategy but typically, the incidence of ARDS would be higher among patients targeted with a selected or indicated prevention strategy compared with patients targeted with a universal prevention strategy.
Thus the spectrum of prevention studies in ARDS can span the course of acute critical illness. The various challenges and considerations with prevention trials in ARDS are not unique to prevention trials but the approaches to these challenges will depend on the intervention and the different prevention levels and study population targeted in a prevention trial in ARDS.
CHALLENGES AND CONSIDERATIONS IN PREVENTION TRIALS IN ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME
Target population in acute respiratory distress syndrome prevention
As the focus shifts from treatment to prevention, the study population will be at-risk patients rather than patients with established ARDS. The at-risk patient population in an ARDS prevention trial depends on the biologic rationale, the risk of the intervention, the feasibility of recruitment, and the incidence of ARDS needed to be able to detect a statistically significant improvement in outcomes.
Several of the prevention studies are primary prevention of ARDS in a selective population. Some examples are trials that focused on patients undergoing elective high-risk surgeries associated with increased development of postoperative ARDS such as cardiac surgery or esophagostomies [22,28,34–36]. In these studies, the preventive intervention was delivered pre or perioperatively before any signs of lung injury or respiratory insufficiency. But the incidence of ARDS after elective surgery is low, occurring in only 2.6% of patients undergoing high-risk surgery . A large sample size would be required to detect an effect, with significant implications for the feasibility and costs of the trial.
Sepsis, pneumonia, aspiration, or trauma are far more common predisposing factors for ARDS but the incidence of ARDS can vary considerably with the inciting injury and with whether screening was done on hospital admission versus ICU presentation (Table 3). Screening on ICU referral or admission will involve sicker patients further along in their course of critical illness with a higher rate of ARDS development and mortality. Although this can help with power of a trial, it may also mean intervening after ARDS has developed. The median time to development of ARDS was 1 day after ICU admission with 38% of the ARDS patients fulfilling criteria for ARDS on ICU admission .
Recently more work focused on tools for the early identification of patients at increased risk for progressing to ARDS for prevention trials. This is essentially secondary prevention using an indicated prevention strategy. The Lung Injury Prediction Score (LIPS) uses clinical data present within the first 6 h of presentation to the emergency department to identify patients at increased risk of developing ARDS (Fig. 2) . A LIPS of at least 4 has a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 78% (area under the curve of 0.80) of identifying ARDS cases. The PPV of LIPS at least 4 is only 18% which means that a large proportion of patients identified by LIPS may still not develop ARDS. This makes LIPS most appropriate for low risk preventive interventions as most patients would not develop ARDS. Increasing the cutoff to LIPS at least 5 improves the PPV slightly from 18 to 23% but it comes with much greater likelihood of missing ARDS cases as the sensitivity decreased from 69 to 53%. Thus, increasing the cutoff in LIPS may not necessarily increase the power of the study to detect a change in rate of ARDS development. Recently, the validity of LIPS to identify patients at high risk for progressing to ARDS from the emergency department was confirmed in an external cohort . The LIPS has since been used to identify at-risk patients for enrollment into the Lung Injury Prevention Study-Aspirin (LIPS-A) . This trial has completed enrollment, demonstrating the feasibility of doing a secondary prevention trial using an indicated preventive strategy.
Other clinical tools to identify patients at increased risk for developing ARDS include the Early Acute Lung Injury score (EALI) and the Surgical Lung Injury Score (SLIP). EALI examined nonintubated patients without ARDS who already show signs of possible early lung injury as indicated by bilateral infiltrates on chest radiograph in the emergency department . An EALI score at least 2 had a sensitivity of 89%, specificity of 75%, and PPV of 53%. However, EALI requires manual titration of oxygen by study staff to determine the lowest level of supplemental oxygen required to maintain oxygen saturation at least 90%. Similarly, SLIP was developed to identify surgical patients at increased risk for developing ARDS, given the low rates of ARDS after surgery . However, neither EALI nor SLIP have been validated in an external cohort or used yet in a clinical trial for prevention of ARDS.
Currently missing is a reliable biomarker-driven approach to identify patients at increased risk for ARDS. Agrawal et al.  found that plasma angiopoietin-2 in combination with LIPS better predict for subsequent development of ARDS than either LIPS or angiopoietin-2 alone. Such a biologic and clinical phenotypic approach can also identify patients that may better respond to an intervention. Calfee et al.  found that the hyper-inflammatory subphenotypes in ARDS predicted for worse clinical outcomes and better response to high PEEP in the ARDSnet ALVEOLI trial. However, for this to be operationalized in a prevention trial with a short window for enrollment there must be a rapid, accurate point of care testing. As yet, there are no prevention clinical trials using this strategy for enrollment.
Timing of intervention in acute respiratory distress syndrome prevention trials
The timing of intervention in an ARDS prevention trial depends greatly on whether the intervention is meant to be primary, secondary, or tertiary prevention (Fig. 1). Primary prevention in ARDS, when the intervention begins before any signs of lung injury are apparent, is only feasible in patients in whom the acute injury predisposing to ARDS can be predicted, such as those undergoing elective high-risk surgery or patients who need blood transfusion [22,28,45,46].
More commonly, ARDS occurs after an acute critical illness like pneumonia or trauma, which often occurs before hospitalization. In such cases, a patient's presentation to the hospital for medical attention may be the first practical point of contact for secondary prevention trials. Only 30% of ARDS patients fulfill criteria within the first 6 h of presentation to the hospital. The majority of patients developed ARDS a median of 2 days (IQR 1–4 days) after hospital admission, representing a potential window of opportunity for early prevention and treatment of ARDS .
The time period between when a patient presents to the hospital and when they develop ARDS often occurs in the emergency department or other non-ICU areas of the hospital. Acute critical illness is now increasingly being identified and managed outside of the ICU. Between 2001 and 2009, the number of critical care admissions from the emergency department increased 79% and the critical care time spent on emergency department patients increased from a median of 185 to 245 min per patient . In another study, 14% of adult patients hospitalized outside of the ICU had severe sepsis with a hospital mortality of 13% with 3/4 of these patients having at least two organ failures . This means that any meaningful screening for ARDS prevention trials must occur outside of the ICU. Indeed, the NHLBI PETAL Network recognized this key point and required two investigators from each site: one intensivist and another investigator from another specialty like emergency medicine or surgery who will have access to high-risk patients before they may present to the ICU.
Study design considerations in acute respiratory distress syndrome prevention trials
Prior treatment trials in ARDS have been designed to demonstrate effectiveness with patient randomized controlled trials using strict inclusion and numerous exclusion criteria to minimize risk and to reduce heterogeneity among the study population. As the focus has shifted to prevention trials, newer study designs may be applicable.
For secondary or tertiary prevention of high-risk study population with an intervention that is more than minimal risk, the traditional effectiveness study design may still be appropriate to ensure safety and to maximize the likelihood of detecting a benefit. However, as the risk benefit ratio of preventive interventions can be difficult to predict, new clinical trial designs such as adaptive designs can be used to minimize risk or to find the optimal dose for benefit .
However, in instances where the incidence of ARDS may be low and the intervention is minimal risk, pragmatic trial designs may be possible. Pragmatic trials have broad inclusion criteria, few exclusion criteria, and the intervention is delivered in the usual care setting without the strict adherence typically seen in the traditional effectiveness trials [50–52]. Such trials are usually more conducive to large sample size, important for power given the lower incidence of the outcome and the more heterogeneous population included in the study.
Cluster randomization is another alternative trial design utilized for critical care trials . Instead of randomizing patients individually to an intervention, all patients within a cluster of ICUs or hospitals are randomized to an intervention or control. This is particularly useful for processes of care interventions in the usual care setting that require education of clinical staff and high likelihood of cross contamination of practices between patients randomized to different groups treated in the same clinical area . This is relevant for ARDS prevention as there have been recent interests in how processes of care in the early period of critical illness could influence the development of ARDS. Li et al.  found the incidence of hospital-acquired ARDS decreased significantly after the successful implementation of best care practices in the ICU, including restrictive transfusion strategy, low tidal volume ventilation, protocolized early resuscitation, and antibiotics in severe sepsis. Indeed, the findings from this study led to the development of the Checklist for Lung Injury Prevention (CLIP). CLIP was used to standardize the care that may affect the development of ARDS in the LIPS-A . However, effectiveness of CLIP has not been demonstrated in a clinical trial, but CLIP would be amenable to hospital level cluster-randomized controlled trial done under a quality improvement initiative.
Outcome measures in acute respiratory distress syndrome prevention trials
In ARDS prevention trials, the goal is to reduce the development of ARDS. However, the use of ARDS as a primary outcome may be problematic. ARDS is not a patient-centered outcome. Prevention of ARDS is meaningless to patients if they were to develop prolonged respiratory failure and die later of nonpulmonary organ failure. Another issue with ARDS as an outcome is that clinical determinants of the syndrome can be manipulated without modifying outcome. High PEEP can improve PaO2/FiO2 without resolution of ARDS. Lastly, a patient must survive long enough to develop ARDS so a preventive intervention that ends up with higher early mortality may actually result in a lower rate of ARDS.
One goal of prevention is to improve mortality by preventing a highly fatal condition like ARDS. But powering for mortality based upon deaths averted from preventing ARDS can be problematic because not all deaths are directly related to ARDS. In general, a much larger sample size is needed to demonstrate a mortality benefit than would be required to demonstrate a change in rate of ARDS. For example, in Determan's small trial  low tidal volume ventilation was shown to decrease development of ARDS without any change in mortality. However, if the study intervention improves the survival in both the risk condition leading to ARDS and in patients with ARDS, then a larger effect on mortality would be found.
Many ARDS treatment trials have utilized the composite outcome of ventilator-free days (VFD), a continuous outcome that combines mortality with time to successful liberation which may allow for smaller sample sizes . However, depending on the target at-risk population in an ARDS prevention trial, not all patients will be ventilated and intubation may occur on different days into the study. The potential bias from this on VFD needs to be determined. VFD works best if one can assume that the treatment can reduce both duration of mechanical ventilation and mortality, but a treatment that results in better survival at the cost of longer duration of mechanical ventilation may result in no difference in VFD even if there is a survival difference. Lastly, VFD is not a patient-centered outcome. Although one might argue that patients would prefer to minimize the duration of mechanical ventilation, it is unclear whether patients would consider death before 28 days to be comparable with survival with prolonged mechanical ventilation.
Similar to VFD is hospital-free days which would give priority to interventions likely to return patients to home. However, hospital length of stay even for similar patients may differ by hospital, insurance status, and whether long-term acute care hospitals are easily available .
Another potential outcome measure is the persistent organ dysfunction plus death . This composite outcome combines death with persistent organ dysfunction defined as ongoing vasopressor need, mechanical ventilation, or dialysis and was shown to correlate with 6-month mortality, longer hospital and ICU stays, and worse quality of life at 3 and 6 months. Notably, it allowed for smaller sample size than that required to demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in mortality or VFD.
Tertiary prevention studies in ARDS can also focus on reducing the complications and loss of function associated with ARDS. At 1 year from ARDS, up to 70% and 31–36% of ARDS patients suffer from cognitive and functional impairment [58–60]. Given this high burden of complications experienced by ARDS survivors, clinical trials aimed at improving the long-term functional outcomes of ARDS survivors will be important. However, preventing ARDS without significantly decreasing the duration of mechanical ventilation or the extent of nonpulmonary organ failure may not improve functional and cognitive outcomes in patients.
Traditionally clinical trials in ARDS have focused on improving mortality after development of ARDS. There is now an exciting shift in emphasis toward earlier identification of patients at risk for ARDS and prevention trials aimed at preventing the development of ARDS and its sequelae. Prevention in ARDS can vary according to the at-risk population and timing of intervention. While this presents an opportunity, it also presents challenges in selecting the appropriate at-risk patient population, the timing of implementation of prevention, study design, and outcome measures. With the recent increase in the number of trials aimed at ARDS prevention and the NHLBI PETAL network, hopefully many of these challenges will be overcome and cost-effective treatments identified. This shift from management of established organ failure to prevention of organ failure has enormous potential to improve public health and improve the efficiency of the healthcare system.
We would like to thank Brittany Gary MD for her assistance in the literature search.
B.T.T. is currently receiving a grant from NHLBI (UO1HL123009) and M.N.G. is currently receiving grants from NHLBI (U01 HL122998 and UH3 HL125119).
Financial support and sponsorship
The work is supported by the National Heart, Lung, Blood Institute (NHLBI) at the National Institute of Health.
Conflicts of interest
There are no conflicts of interest.
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Keywords:Copyright © 2016 YEAR Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
acute respiratory distress syndrome; clinical trials; prevention