The results of 106 high tibial valgus osteotomies in 85 patients were evaluated after a minimum 10-year followup to determine survivorship, complications, and risk factors associated with failure. Using Kaplan-Meier survivorship analysis, 73% of patients at 5 years, 51% of patients at 10 years, 39% at 15 years, and 30% at 20 years after high tibial osteotomy had not required conversion of the high tibial osteotomy to a total knee arthroplasty. Univariate Cox regression analysis of risk factors showed that age older than 50 years, previous arthroscopic debridement, presence of a lateral tibial thrust, preoperative knee flexion less than 120°, insufficient valgus correction, and development of delayed union or nonunion were significantly associated with probability of early failure. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a body mass index of less than 25 kg/m2, presence of a lateral tibial thrust, and development of delayed union or nonunion were significantly associated with probability of early failure. Using recursive partitioning analysis of risk factors with the Wilcoxon test, a subset of patients who were younger than 50 years of age and who had preoperative knee flexion greater than 120° had a probability of survival after high tibial osteotomy approaching 95% at 5 years, 80% at 10 years, and 60% at 15 years. These results suggest that survival of high tibial osteotomy can be improved through careful patient selection and surgical technique.
From the Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, London Health Sciences Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.