Feature Article: PDF OnlyValidation of “Personal Protective Equipment Conservation Strategies Tool” to Predict Consumption of N95s, Facemasks, and Gowns During Pandemic-Related ShortagesRickard, Kelly N.Z. MPH; Cohen, Joanna S. MD; Chamberlain, James M. MD; Ong, Hilary MD; Dwyer, Matthew RN; Perritt, Ashley PA-C; McKinley, Kenneth W. MDAuthor Information Author Affiliations: Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, The George Washington University (Ms Rickard); and Emergency Medicine and Trauma Center (Drs Cohen and Ong, Mr Dwyer, and Ms Perritt) and Emergency Medicine Section of Data Analytics (Drs Chamberlain and McKinley), Children's National Hospital, Washington, DC; and Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California San Francisco (Dr Ong). Authorship: All authors attest to meeting the four ICMJE.org authorship criteria: (1) substantial contributions to the conception or design of the work, or the acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data for the work; (2) drafting the work or revising it critically for important intellectual content; (3) final approval of the version to be published; and (4) agreement to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. There was no funding to support the development of the Excel-based simulation, the validation study, or the writing of this manuscript. The development of a Web application (available at https://ppecs-tool.childrensnational.org) was generously supported by funding from the Children's National Hospital Foundation. Children's National Hospital (on behalf of K.W.M.) and K.N.Z.R. applied for copyright registration for the source code for the Web application and the Excel-based simulation versions of the Personal Protective Equipment Conservation Strategies Tool. The tool is intended to remain free for users on a public-facing Web site. The text of the attached manuscript was not included in the filing for copyright registration. J.S.C., J.M.C., H.O., M.D., and A.P. report no conflicts of interest relevant to this article. Author Contributions: The study was conceived by K.N.Z.R. and K.W.M. Model input parameters were defined by J.S.C., J.M.C., H.O., M.D., A.P., and K.W.M. The Excel-based simulation model was created by K.N.Z.R. All authors take responsibility for the paper as a whole. Corresponding author: Kenneth W. McKinley, MD, 111 Michigan Ave NW, Washington, DC 20010 ([email protected]). Supplemental digital content is available for this article. Direct URL citations appear in the printed text and are provided in the HTML and PDF versions of this article on the journal’s Web site (www.cinjournal.com). This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections. CIN: Computers, Informatics, Nursing: September 10, 2021 - Volume - Issue - doi: 10.1097/CIN.0000000000000831 Buy SDC PAP Metrics Abstract We sought to prospectively validate a model to predict the consumption of personal protective equipment in a pediatric emergency department during the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed the Personal Protective Equipment Conservation Strategies Tool, a Monte Carlo simulation model with input parameters defined by members of our emergency department personal protective equipment task force. Inputs include different conservation strategies that reflect dynamic reuse policies. Over the course of 4 consecutive weeks in April and May 2020, we used the model to predict the consumption of N95 respirators, facemasks, and gowns in our emergency department based on values for each input parameter. At the end of each week, we calculated the percent difference between actual consumption and predicted consumption based on model outputs. Actual consumption of personal protective equipment was within 20% of model predictions for each of the 4 consecutive weeks for N95s (range, −16.3% to 16.1%) and facemasks (range, −7.6% to 13.1%), using “maximum conservation” and “high conservation” strategies, respectively. Actual consumption of gowns was 11.8% less than predicted consumption for Week 1, gown resupply data were unavailable on Weeks 2-4. The Personal Protective Equipment Conservation Strategies Tool was prospectively validated for “maximum conservation” and “high conservation” models, with actual consumption within 20% of model predictions. Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.