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Has the mortality of septic shock changed with time?

Friedman, Gilberto MD; Silva, Eliezer MD; Vincent, Jean-Louis MD, PhD, FCCM

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Objectives To determine whether a systematic review of the literature could identify changes in the mortality of septic shock over time.

Data Sources A review of all relevant papers from 1958 to August 1997, identified through a MEDLINE search and from the bibliographies of articles identified.

Data Synthesis The search identified 131 studies (99 prospective and 32 retrospective) involving a total of 10,694 patients. The patients' mean age was 57 yrs with no change over time. The overall mortality rate in the 131 studies was 49.7%. There was an overall significant trend of decreased mortality over the period studied (r2 = .49, p < .05). The mortality rate in those patients with bacteremia as an entry criterion was greater than that rate in patients whose entry criterion was sepsis without definite bacteremia (52.1% vs. 49.1%; [chi squared] = 6.1 and p < .05).

The site of infection altered noticeably over the years.Chest-related infections increased over time, with Gram-negative infections becoming proportionately less common. If all other organisms and mixed infections are included with the Gram-positives, the result is more dramatic, with these organisms being causative in just 10% of infections between 1958 and 1979 but in 31% of infections between 1980 and 1997.

Conclusions The present review showed a slight reduction in mortality from septic shock over the years, although this result should be approached with caution. The heterogeneity of the articles and absence of a severity score for most of the studies limited our analysis. Furthermore, there was an increasing prevalence of Gram-positive causative organisms, and a change of the predominant origin of sepsis from the abdomen to the chest. (Crit Care Med 1998; 26:2078-2086)

From the Department of Intensive Care, Erasme University Hospital, Free University of Brussels, Belgium.

Address requests for reprints to: Dr. Jean-Louis Vincent, Department of Intensive Care, Erasme University Hospital, Route de Lennik 808, B-1070 Brussels, Belgium. E-mail jlvincen@ulb.ac.be.

© Williams & Wilkins 1998. All Rights Reserved.