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Decision Analysis for the Cost-Effective Management of Recurrent Colorectal Cancer

Park, Kenneth C. BS; Schwimmer, Judy MBA, MA; Shepherd, James E. MS; Phelps, Michael E. PhD; Czernin, Johannes R. MD; Schiepers, Christiaan MD; Gambhir, Sanjiv S. MD, PhD

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Objective To determine whether the use of [18F]2-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET) in addition to computed axial tomography (CT) is helpful in managing recurrent colorectal cancer (CRC).

Summary Background Data There is no consensus on a management algorithm for CRC. However, when recurrence is suspected, CT is generally used for further evaluation and staging of disease.

Methods The authors used decision trees based on theoretical models to assess the cost-effectiveness of a CT + FDG PET strategy for the diagnosis and management of recurrent CRC compared with a CT-alone strategy. These theoretical models focus on patients with hepatic recurrence who are potentially curable through surgical hepatic resection. The population entering the decision trees consisted of patients with CRC who had undergone surgical resection of their primary CRC and who were suspected of having recurrence based on elevated levels of carcinoembryonic antigen.

Results The CT + FDG PET strategy was found to be cost-effective for managing patients with elevated carcinoembryonic antigen levels who were candidates for hepatic resection. The CT + FDG PET strategy was higher in mean cost by $429 per patient but resulted in an increase in the mean life expectancy of 9.527 days per patient.

Conclusions These results show, through rigorous decision tree analysis, the potential cost-effectiveness of FDG PET in the management of recurrent CRC. The decision trees can be used to model various features of the management of recurrent CRC, including the cost-effectiveness of other newly emerging technologies.

From the Crump Institute for Molecular Imaging, the Department of Molecular & Medical Pharmacology, the Division of Nuclear Medicine, and the Department of Biomathematics, UCLA School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California

Partially supported by DOE contract DE-FC03-87ER60615 and the Ahmanson Foundation.

Correspondence: Sanjiv Sam Gambhir, MD, PhD, Associate Professor, Crump Institute for Molecular Imaging, UCLA School of Medicine, B3-399A BRI, Box 951770, 700 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1770.

E-mail: sgambhir@mednet.ucla.edu

Accepted for publication October 6, 2000.

© 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.