Original ArticlesLethality of Alzheimer Disease and Its Impact on Nursing Home PlacementArrighi, Henry Michael PhD, MSPH*; Neumann, Peter J. ScD†; Lieberburg, Ivan M. MD, PhD* ‡; Townsend, Raymond J. PharmD*Author Information *Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc, South San Francisco ‡Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA †Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies, Tufts-New England Medical Center, Boston, MA Reprints: Henry Michael Arrighi, PhD, MSPH, Epidemiology, Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc, 800 Gateway Boulevard, South San Francisco, CA 94080 (e-mail: [email protected]). Received for publication September 3, 2008; accepted January 17, 2009 Supported by funding from Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Disclosures: Henry Michael Arrighi and Raymond J. Townsend are employees of Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Ivan M. Lieberburg was an employee of Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc, during the course of this work Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc, provided funding to Peter J. Neuman. Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders: January-March 2010 - Volume 24 - Issue 1 - p 90-95 doi: 10.1097/WAD.0b013e31819fe7d1 Buy Metrics Abstract This analysis evaluates the progression of Alzheimer disease (AD) severity and compares the life expectancy and nursing home placement rates for AD patients with the same measures in the general population. Data from the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer Disease were analyzed to estimate expected survival, time spent in each Clinical Dementia Rating stage, and nursing home admission rate for a hypothetical cohort of patients aged 70 years with new-onset AD. Corresponding estimates for the US general population were calculated from the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey and the 2003 life table estimates from the US Census Bureau. Deaths from all causes by age 80 years are expected in 61% of AD patients and in 30% of the general population. From the age of 70 to 80 years, a typical AD patient spends 4 years at Clinical Dementia Rating stage 3 (severe), 3 years at stage 2 (moderate), and 3 years at stage 1 (mild). Nursing home admission by the age of 80 years is expected for ∼75% of surviving AD patients, but for only 4% of the general population. Among persons aged ≥65 years, reported age-adjusted and sex-adjusted mortality rates for AD increased to 33% from 1999 to 2004. © 2010 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.