PREDICTING ELITE SWIM PERFORMANCE AT THE USA 2000 OLYMPIC SWIM TRAILS

Progressions in performances at the elite level in any sport should be incremental, nonlinear and predictable over time assuming catastrophic changes within the sport have not occurred. Changes in the rules, training practices, nutrition, pool design, or costumes may be suggested as having an impact upon trends in performance. To determine whether or not any of these variables have affected recent outcomes in swimming, performances of the swimmers participating in the USA Olympic Swimming Trials and Olympic Games between the years 1968 though 1996 were analyzed as a means to predict the times for each individual event at the 2000 Trials and 2000 Olympic Games. To examine the improvement in performance, we first plotted the times by event for finalists of each of the trials and each Olympic Games. Since the chronological performance improvements are expected to decrease as the sport matures and a slowing rate of progression is evident, we found that non-linear models based on “recent” meets more accurately forecast 1996 results as opposed to those models which were more comprehensive in nature and included meets as early as 1968. Using analysis of variance backwards in time from the 1996 Trials and Olympics, a useful prediction time frame was determined for each individual swim event. Results indicate only two women's events (out of 13) during the 2000 Olympic Trials in which the outcome differed from predictions: the 200 backstroke was slower than predicted and the 100 breaststroke was faster. None of the men's events differed from our predictions. However, utilizing identical modeling, 7 of the 26 events in the 2000 Olympics were faster than predicted, 5 of which were women's events. We conclude, in general, recent outcomes of competitive events in swimming have occurred as expected with little or no novel interference. However, parameters disturbing our ability to predict performance do appear to exist at the international level specifically within the women's events.