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Near Elimination of Genital Warts in Australia Predicted With Extension of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination to Males

Korostil, Igor A. MSc; Ali, Hammad MPh; Guy, Rebecca J. PhD; Donovan, Basil MD; Law, Matthew G. PhD; Regan, David G. PhD

doi: 10.1097/OLQ.0000000000000030
Original Study

Background The National Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination Program for females delivering the quadrivalent vaccine Gardasil has been included in the National Immunisation Program in Australia since 2007. Sentinel surveillance data show that genital wart incidence has been steadily declining since then. The objective of this study was to estimate the additional impact on genital warts as a result of male vaccination, which was approved by the Australian government in 2012 and commenced in 2013.

Methods We use a mathematical model of HPV transmission in the Australian heterosexual population to predict the impact of male vaccination on the incidence of genital warts.

Results Our model produced results that are consistent with the actual observed decline in genital warts and predicted a much lower incidence, approaching elimination, in coming decades with the introduction of male vaccination.

Conclusions Results from our model indicate that the planned extension of the National HPV Vaccination Program to males will lead to the near elimination of genital warts in both the female and male heterosexual populations in Australia.

Modeling predicts a decline in incidence of genital warts in Australia in agreement with sentinel surveillance data. Male vaccination will enhance the current vaccination program and should achieve the near elimination of genital warts. Supplemental Digital Content is available in the article.

From the Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

Conflicts of interest and source of funding: B.D., R.J.G., and D.G.R. have received honoraria and research funding from bioCSL Pty Ltd. B.D. and R.J.G. have received honoraria from Sanofi Pasteur MSD. B.D. has received honoraria from Merck. For the remaining authors, none were declared. This work was supported by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP0883831) and a National Health and Medical Research Council Program Grant (568971). The genital wart surveillance network is funded by bioCSL Pty Ltd. The Kirby Institute receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing. The Kirby Institute is affiliated with the Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales.

Correspondence: Igor Korostil, Msc, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. E-mail:

Received for publication February 5, 2013, and accepted August 4, 2013.

Supplem1ental digital content is available for this article. Direct URL citations appear in the printed text, and links to the digital files are provided in the HTML text of this article on the journal’s Web site (

© Copyright 2013 American Sexually Transmitted Diseases Association