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The Predictive Value of Initial Serum Lactate in Trauma Patients

Parsikia, Afshin; Bones, Kathleen; Kaplan, Mark; Strain, Jay; Leung, Pak Shan; Ortiz, Jorge; Joshi, Amit R. T.

doi: 10.1097/SHK.0000000000000208
Clinical Aspects
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ABSTRACT Trauma patients require early assessment of injury severity. Trauma scores, although well validated, can be unwieldy in the emergency clinical setting. We sought to evaluate the prognostic value of initial serum lactate (ISL) for mortality, operative intervention (OI), and intensive care unit admission (ICUA) in trauma patients. We conducted an institutional review board–approved retrospective study. We reviewed all trauma patients between January 2007 and June 2012 in our prospectively maintained database. We included only adults whose ISL had been drawn within the first 35 min after arrival. We included only those patients whose interval between injury and arrival was within 24 h. Survivors and nonsurvivors were compared using logistic regression, Mann-Whitney U, and chi-square tests. Discriminating ability of ISL for mortality was assessed with receiver operating characteristic analysis. Our secondary outcomes (ICUA and OI) were evaluated with logistic regression test and receiver operating characteristic analysis. A total of 1,941 patients were included. Overall mortality was 6.2%. Median ISL was 32 mg/dL (interquartile range, 17 – 62) for nonsurvivors versus 21 mg/dL (interquartile range, 14 – 32) for survivors (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, ISL was a significant covariate for mortality (P = 0.015). The odds ratio was 1.010 (95% confidence interval, 1.002 − 1.019). The area under the curve was 0.63. The ISL was a significant covariate for OI (P = 0.033). The ISL did not reach significance for ICUA. The ISL is an easily measured, rapid, and inexpensive test that can help to quickly stratify injury severity in trauma patients. We have found that ISL, when used in strictly selected patients, can predict OI and mortality.

Department of Surgery, Einstein Healthcare Network, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Received 18 Mar 2014; first review completed 1 Apr 2014; accepted in final form 5 May 2014

Address reprint requests to Amit R.T. Joshi, MD, FACS, 5501 Old York Rd, Suite 510 Philadelphia, PA 19141. E-mail:

© 2014 by the Shock Society