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EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF EXISTING FORMULAS TO PREDICT THE RISK OF DEVELOPING PROLIFERATIVE VITREORETINOPATHY: The Retina 1 Project; Report 5

Sala-Puigdollers, Anna MD*,†; Fernández, Itziar MSc*,‡; Coco, Rosa M. MD, PhD*; Sanabria, María R. MD, PhD*,§; Rodríguez de la Rúa, Enrique MD, PhD; Ruiz-Moreno, José María MD, PhD**; Navea, Amparo MD, PhD††; Suárez de Figueroa, Marta MD, PhD‡‡; Pastor, J. Carlos MD, PhD*,†,‡

doi: 10.1097/IAE.0b013e31828991ea
Original Study

Purpose: To externally validate the accuracy of previously published formulas for predicting proliferative vitreoretinopathy development after retinal detachment surgery.

Methods: Clinical variables from consecutive retinal detachment patients (n = 1,047) were collected from the Retina 1 Project conducted in 17 Spanish and Portuguese centers. These data were used for external validation of four previously published formulas, F1 to F4. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were used to validate the quality of formulas, and measures of discrimination, precision, and calibration were calculated for each. Concordance among the formulas was determined by Cohen kappa index.

Results: The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves were as follows: F1, 0.5809; F2, 0.5398; F3, 0.5964; and F4, 0.4617. F1 had the highest accuracy, 74.21%. Almost 19% of proliferative vitreoretinopathy cases were correctly classified by F1 compared with 13%, 15%, and 10% for F2, F3, and F4, respectively. There was moderate concordance between F2 and F3 but little between the other formulas.

Conclusion: After external validation, none of the formulas were accurate enough for routine clinical use. To increase its usefulness, other factors besides the clinical ones considered here should be incorporated into future formulas for predicting risk of developing proliferative vitreoretinopathy.

Data from the Retina 1 Project, a prospective multicenter study, was used for external validation of four formulas reported to predict the risk of proliferative vitreoretinopathy development after retinal detachment surgery. None of the formulas were found to be reliable enough for clinical use.

*IOBA (Eye Institute), University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain;

Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain;

Ciber BBN, Spain;

§Complejo Asistencial de Palencia (CAPA), Palencia, Spain;

Hospital Universitario Puerta del Mar, Cádiz, Spain;

**Vissum, Alicante, Spain;

††Fundación Oftalmológica del Mediterráneo Valencia, Spain; and

‡‡Hospital Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain.

Correspondence to: Anna Sala-Puigdollers, MD, University of Valladolid. Edificio IOBA, Campus Miguel Delibes. Paseo de Belén 7, 47011 Valladolid, Spain; e-mail: asalap@ioba.med.uva.es

The study was coordinated by the IOBA, University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain. The authors have no proprietary interest and no specific financial support was received for this project. This project was developed under the support of the Thematic Network 03/13 of the Carlos III, Institute of Health of Spain.

© 2013 by Ophthalmic Communications Society, Inc.