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Journal of Computer Assisted Tomography:
doi: 10.1097/RCT.0b013e318231824a
Original Article

The Prognostic Value of Vascular Diameter Measurements on Routine Chest Computed Tomography in Patients Not Referred for Cardiovascular Indications

Gondrie, Martijn J.A. MD, PhD*†; van der Graaf, Yolanda MD, PhD*; Jacobs, Peter C. MD*†; Buckens, Stan C.F.M. MD*; Mali, Willem P.Th.M. MD, PhD; On Behalf of the PROVIDI Study Group

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Objectives: The aim of the study was to investigate whether diameter measurements of the thoracic aorta and the heart can be used as prognostic markers for future cardiovascular disease.

Methods: Following a case-cohort design, a total of 10,410 patients undergoing chest computed tomography were followed up for a mean period of 17 months. The ones with a cardiovascular indication were excluded. Diameter measurements were evaluated with Cox proportional hazard analysis.

Results: Five hundred fifteen incident cardiovascular events occurred during follow-up. The heart (hazard ratio [HR], 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.06) and ascending thoracic (HR, 1.002; 95% CI, 1.001–1.004) diameter showed an exponential prognostic effect beyond a threshold diameter of, respectively, 11 and 30 mm; the descending aortic diameter (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01–1.13) and cardiothoracic ratio (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.04–1.08) showed linear prognostic effects beyond, respectively, 25 and 0.45 mm.

Conclusion: Intrathoracic diameter measurements can be used as markers to predict cardiovascular events in patients not referred for that disease outcome.

© 2011 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.



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