Applying the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale criteria, we assessed the quality of the body of literature included in the systematic review as high (score ≥8) (Table 2).
A minimum of 7,359,993 person-years of follow-up was reported (person-time not reported in 7 studies), with 1,550,017 participants, among whom 1643 cases of CRC were diagnosed. Studies of incident colon cancer (excluding cancer of the rectum) represented a minimum of 611,654 person-years of follow-up (person-time not reported in one study) and 146,053 participants, with 78 cases of colon cancer diagnosed. All studies included in quantitative synthesis adjusted for age and sex, at a minimum.
Results from random effects meta-analysis demonstrated no summary effect risk of CRC and colon cancers among people with HIV relative to an uninfected population (SIR 1.00; 95% CI: 0.82 to 1.22) (Fig. 2). We observed substantial and significant heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effect across included studies (I2 = 89.2%, P < 0.00001). In analyses that pooled results from publications reporting CRC cancer and colon cancer separately, we observed no summary effect risk specific to CRC (SIR 1.04; 95% CI: 0.85 to 1.27), whereas a lower risk of colon cancer was observed among people with HIV relative to an uninfected comparator population (SIR 0.63; 95% CI: 0.52 to 0.75) (Supplemental Digital Content, Figure 1, http://links.lww.com/QAI/B20). In sensitivity analyses, no significant changes were observed by individual removal of publications (range of summary point estimate SIRs 0.92–1.23) or exclusion of the study contributing the largest number of CRC cases47 (SIR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.90 to 1.04) (I2 = 91%, P < 0.00001). Furthermore, no significant changes were observed in SIR after individual removal of either one of two publications drawing CRC cases from the same population (SIRs 1.00 and 0.97).46,47 By contrast, exclusion of the study contributing the largest number of cases to the colon cancer–only analysis suggested no association between HIV and this outcome (SIR 0.77; 95% CI: 0.50 to 1.20).43
In subgroup analysis, results were consistent for studies conducted in the United States (SIR 0.95; 95% CI: 0.66 to 1.38) and elsewhere (SIR 1.0; 95% CI: 0.32 to 3.14), as well as for studies identifying CRC cases from hospitals (SIR 1.10; 95% CI: 0.63 to 1.92) and registries (SIR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.78 to 1.21). In addition, the summary estimate was similar among 5 studies reporting data exclusively before cART (1995 and earlier)6,15,18,41,46 (SIR 1.48; 95% CI: 0.79 to 2.43) and 12 studies of data from 1996 and onward6,15,18,19,40,44–46,50,51,54,56 (SIR 1.18; 95% CI: 0.80 to 2.16). By contrast, pooled results from 3 studies reporting 21 cases for women found a higher rate of CRC among women with HIV20,41,56 (SIR 3.53; 95% CI: 1.57 to 7.96) (Supplemental Digital Content, Figure 2, http://links.lww.com/QAI/B20). No such change was observed in the 4 studies independently reporting men20,41,54,56 (SIR 1.41; 95% CI: 0.31 to 6.37) (Supplemental Digital Content, Figure 3, http://links.lww.com/QAI/B20). Significant heterogeneity was observed in all subgroup analyses (range I2 = 88–92%, P < 0.0001).
Asymmetry was observed in the funnel plot of studies of CRC/colon SIR, a finding which may reflect the inclusion of a small number of heterogeneous studies with null effects, (Supplemental Digital Content, Figure 4, http://links.lww.com/QAI/B20). There was no evidence of publication bias using the Begg test (P = 0.78) or Egger test (P = 0.28), although these tests are insensitive when small numbers of studies are included.57 A post hoc trim-and-fill method58 was also applied to assess the effect of publication bias, with no effective change in summary SIR point estimates from 0.96 to 1.12 with the addition of 4 hypothetical studies.
Three studies reported a total of 194 CRC-attributed deaths. All studies adjusted for age and sex, at a minimum. Although the random effects meta-analysis demonstrated summary risk of death due to CRC among those with HIV relative to an uninfected population, there was inadequate precision to reject the null hypothesis of no difference (SMR 2.09; 95% CI: 1.00 to 4.40) (Fig. 3). Substantial and significant heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effect across included studies was detected (I2 = 85.0%, P = 0.001). Bias was not assessed because of the small number of included studies.
We performed a comprehensive systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis to assess the risk of CRC among people with HIV relative to an uninfected population. Relative to the most recently published meta-analysis, we included 12 additional studies reporting SIRs for CRC and 3 studies reporting mortality.3 Overall, 27 retrospective cohort studies were considered relevant, with the body of literature judged to be of high quality. From 23 studies included in meta-analysis, our results support the hypothesis that the incidence of CRC is similar between persons with HIV and a referent population. Although the risk of CRC mortality was also similar between people with and without HIV, few studies reported on this outcome, and further research is required to confirm this finding. Results were consistent for studies conducted in the United States and elsewhere, as well as before and after the introduction of cART.
Our results corroborate those of previously published meta-analyses, finding a similar incidence of CRC among people with HIV relative to the general population.2,3 The finding that HIV does not impart an increased risk of CRC is somewhat unexpected in light of studies demonstrating a higher prevalence of adenomatous polyps in people with HIV relative to uninfected individuals.21–25 The mechanism through which HIV increases the risk of polyps is not completely understood and likely multifactorial. Although some studies have found that antiretroviral therapy, detectable viral load, and CD4 cell count influence the development of polyps, these results have not been consistently observed.21–23 A nearly 2-fold increase in the risk of polyps has been associated with smoking, which is more prevalent in people with HIV relative to HIV-negative individuals.1 Furthermore, HIV and its treatments have been associated with elevations in insulin and proinflammatory cytokines, as well as reduced levels of adiponectin, all of which may promote neoplastic growths of the colonic mucosa.60–65 Finally, HIV may activate β-catenin signaling pathway, a process associated with the initiation of intestinal neoplasia.66 Because the adenomatous polyp-CRC pathway is thought to give rise to a large proportion of CRCs, a correspondingly higher rate of CRC in people with HIV would be expected. This discrepancy may occur because endoscopic investigations are frequently used for diagnostic and screening purposes in people with HIV, given the high prevalence of gastrointestinal symptoms and human papillomavirus-associated anorectal disease in this population.67–71 In one study examining CRC screening in predominantly male patients with HIV, only 3.8% of colonoscopies were undertaken for routine screening, with the remainder being performed for diagnostic reasons.70 A separate study found that men with HIV were more likely to undergo colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy than HIV-negative men.72 The use of endoscopic investigations in people with HIV may permit early identification and removal of adenomatous polyps before malignant transformation occurs, thereby mitigating any excess risk of CRC associated with a higher prevalence of these growths. This assertion may also explain in part the lower risk of colon cancer observed among people with HIV after meta-analysis, although this finding should be interpreted cautiously because it was influenced strongly by data from one large study.43
Our finding of an increased risk of CRC in women warrants cautious interpretation because it is based on few cases identified from 3 studies with significant and substantial heterogeneity. More specifically, this finding was driven by studies in the United States (SIR 4.0, 95% CI: 1.1 to 10.2) and Taiwan (SIR 5.8; 95% 3.2 to 9.7) with samples of persons with HIV who were overwhelmingly (>90%) men.41,56 Given our lack of precision around point estimates for women, further research is required to confirm whether women with HIV are a high risk population for CRC, and to uncover the biologic, social, or health system explanations for such a disparity.
We also observed a 2-fold higher rate of CRC-related mortality in people with HIV relative to uninfected individuals, although this finding should be considered preliminary, given it is based on 3 studies and does not meet conventional criteria for statistical significance. Furthermore, it is possible that our literature search may have missed studies related to this outcome because it was developed primarily for identifying studies comparing the incidence of CRC in people with and without HIV. This finding is, however, consistent with research demonstrating an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality53 among people with HIV relative to the general population and is further supported by evidence demonstrating that people with HIV and CRC are less likely to receive cancer treatment than uninfected people with CRC.73 In addition, small studies have found that patients with HIV have more advanced stage disease at presentation relative to uninfected individuals, which may also contribute to a higher risk of disease-attributable death.74,75
Strengths of this study include the large sample size, geographic and temporal diversity of the contributing cohorts, and evaluation of CRC risk separately for men and women with HIV. However, several limitations merit emphasis. Most notably, data regarding important risk factors for CRC, including race/ethnicity, smoking, alcohol consumption, and body mass index, were not consistently reported in studies. We were, therefore, unable to adjust for these variables or examine whether differences existed between different groups. Similarly, we were unable to assess the impact of stage of CRC, treatment modalities, and nonmortality outcomes attributed to the incident cancer diagnosis. In addition, the pooled SIR estimate should be interpreted cautiously because individual study SIRs were derived from populations which differed in age and sex composition, as well as genetic predisposition to CRC. Moreover, the review synthesized results from study-level data only. Consequently, although we are able to draw inferences about the incidence of CRC among persons with HIV overall, we are unable to make definitive conclusions regarding individual risk of CRC among those with HIV. Estimates for those included studies who compared to a general, uninfected population may also be inferior to internal comparisons, biasing the effect of HIV status on CRC risk. General limitations of all systematic reviews are applicable in that, despite comprehensive searching, our strategy may have failed to identify eligible studies. Last, we did not contact study authors for additional data of potentially relevant studies, thus leading to potential exclusion.
Our systematic review and meta-analysis contributes to the emerging body of literature regarding non-AIDS–defining cancers among the aging cohort of people with HIV. Our findings suggest that CRC screening guidelines developed for the general population are likely adequate for people with HIV, with risks and benefits of each modality being considered in light of individual risk for disease and underlying health. Further evaluation to explore whether people with HIV are at higher risk of CRC-related death and whether the incidence of CRC varies within the population of persons with HIV is warranted to inform clinical care and indicate where targeted interventions to promote screening are required.
We thank David Lightfoot for his assistance with the literature search along with Nancy Kou and Ayda Agha for their assistance with protocol development.
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