Ten-Year Follow-Up of HIV-Infected Homosexual Men with Lymphadenopathy Syndrome: Evidence for Continuing Risk of Developing AIDS.

Kaplan, Jonathan E.; Spira, Thomas J.; Fishbein, Daniel B.; Lynn, Henry S.
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes: June 1992
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Summary: Seventy-five homosexual men with lymphadenopathy syndrome (LAS), subsequently shown to be seropositive for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), were enrolled in a prospective study in Atlanta in 1982 and 1983. Subjects have been followed up at 3- to 6-month intervals with clinical and immunologic evaluations, including analysis of T-cell subsets. As of February 28, 1991, AIDS had developed in 36 (48%) of the 75 men. The AIDS cases continued to occur through the 10th year after onset of LAS; the 10-year cumulative incidence of AIDS was 56.6% (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis). Six-year incidence rates following the first observation of a T-helper cell count >=500/mm3, 400-499/mm3, 300-399/mm3, 200-299/mm3, and <200/mm3 were 29, 35, 50, 58, and 88%, respectively. Among individual symptoms and signs, only thrush conferred a poorer prognosis (odds ratio = 5.80; 95% confidence interval, 2.93, 11.39, p < 0.001, Mantel-Byar analysis). The risk of AIDS persists 10 years after the onset of LAS. The AIDS incidence is related directly to T-helper cell depletion; with the exception of thrush, the presence or absence of symptoms and signs appears to be of lesser prognostic significance.

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