At the enrollment colonoscopy, endoscopic activity (a Mayo endoscopic subscore of at least 1) was recorded in 67 of 149 patients (45%) in the cohort; 32% had a score of 1, 12% had a score of 2, and 1% had a score of 3 (Table 2). A subset of 15 patients had their endoscopy images rescored by a second endoscopist blinded to the score to determine the interobserver agreement for the endoscopic score. The kappa statistic was 0.7, suggesting substantial agreement between the endoscopists.20
Representative endoscopic images of patients with each Mayo endoscopy subscore from this study are shown in Figure, Supplemental Digital Content 2, http://links.lww.com/IBD/A68. The mean CRP was 4.8 mg/L (median, 2.2 mg/L) in those patients with any endoscopic inflammation (score > 0) and 7.3 mg/L (median 3.2 mg/L) in those with a Mayo score >1. In comparison, patients with a normal appearing colon had a mean CRP of 2.4 mg/L (median, 1.3 mg/L). The mean Geboes histologic score was 1.7 (standard error of the mean, 0.3) in those with endoscopic inflammation; histologic scores ranged from 0 (no structural abnormalities) to 5.4 (ulcer or granulation tissue) in this patient group.
To determine which phenotype or treatment variables were associated with any underlying endoscopic inflammation, an initial univariate analysis was performed for associations (P < 0.1) with endoscopic score >0 (see Table, Supplemental Digital Content 3, http://links.lww.com/IBD/A69). In this screening phase, patients in clinical remission for >6 months had a reduced risk of current endoscopic activity (relative ratio, 0.6; 95% confidence interval, 0.4–0.7; P = 0.001). In contrast, patients who required steroids in the preceding 12 months had a higher risk of any current endoscopic inflammation (relative ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.3–2.6; P = 0.01). WBC and CRP were also significantly different between those with and without any endoscopic inflammation (P = 0.03 and 0.02, respectively, by t test).
In a multivariate nominal logistic regression model that included these variables, clinical remission for <6 months and CRP level remained independently associated with the presence of any endoscopic activity (P = 0.0002 for whole model). Combining remission status and CRP level in the model yielded, a sensitivity of 50% and specificity of 85% to detect any underlying endoscopic activity in patients in clinical remission (AUC, 0.68 for model; Fig. 2). CRP alone only provided an optimal sensitivity of 66% and specificity of 58% at a cutoff of 1.6 mg/L (AUC, 0.62).
Because the criteria for mucosal healing in UC clinical trials usually only require improvement in endoscopic appearance to a Mayo subscore of <2, we also analyzed how a combined model would perform in identifying patients with moderate-to-severe endoscopic activity.21 In a multivariate model, variables independently associated with a Mayo endoscopic score >1 were remission for < 6 months (P = 0.001), WBC (P = 0.01), and CRP (P = 0.009). A model combining these 3 variables had a sensitivity of 94% and a specificity of 73% for predicting moderate-to-severe endoscopic activity in these patients. The receiver operating characteristic curve of the combined model had an AUC of 0.86 (Fig. 3).
CRP alone, at a cutoff of 2.2 mg/L, had a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 65% for the detection of moderate-to-severe endoscopic activity (AUC, 0.76). Because screening for endoscopic inflammation is the primary goal of any peripheral biomarker, a lower CRP cutoff of 1.2 mg/L would provide a sensitivity of 90% for endoscopic inflammation in this population, at the expense of lower specificity (40%). Conversely, 95% of patients with a normal colon had a CRP <6.7 mg/L in this study.
Finally, we sought to determine whether the gene expression profile of PBMCs could identify patients with underlying endoscopic inflammation. A PCR array containing probes for 81 genes involved in systemic inflammatory pathways was used in 12 patients: 6 with endoscopic activity (Mayo score >1) and 6 with normal endoscopic appearance. As can be seen in Figure 4, a number of genes were differentially expressed between patients with endoscopic inflammation, compared with patients with mucosal healing. However, only GATA-3 expression was significantly different between both groups, with a 1.6-fold increase in the expression of GATA-3 by PBMCs in patients with endoscopic inflammation (P = 0.04).
In recent years, there has been much focus on the importance of mucosal healing in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and the detrimental effects of chronic intestinal inflammation.9,22 Although much of the evidence to support mucosal healing is evolving, ensuring our patients achieve this outcome makes therapeutic sense. In patients who do not respond clinically to standard treatments for UC, reevaluation with sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy is a common practice.12 However, in patients who achieve clinical remission, confirmation of endoscopic healing is not routinely performed beyond surveillance colonoscopy.4 Whether this approach misses patients with ongoing endoscopic inflammation is unclear.
This study provides novel information on this issue, with evidence that almost half of patients (45%) who meet standard criteria for “clinical remission” have ongoing endoscopic inflammation. Although only 13% exhibited moderate-to-severe endoscopic inflammation at colonoscopy, this still represents a significant cohort of patients who have not achieved the optimal clinical outcome, even though most (86%) were prescribed appropriate therapies. Recent data have reported a lack of mucosal healing in 62% of patients with UC after a course of steroids, and these patients had a higher risk of negative clinical outcomes, such as hospitalizations, immunosuppressant use, and colectomy.3 Indirect data from other groups have also associated the lack of mucosal healing with adverse clinical outcomes.6 Whether patients such as in our study, in clinical remission but with mild-to-moderate endoscopic activity, also have a higher risk of adverse outcomes is unknown, although further follow-up of this complete inception cohort over time will provide some data in this regard. The population of patients with persistent endoscopic activity also raises the question of whether we should be treating patients with UC primarily to achieve mucosal healing, irrespective of their lack of clinical symptoms. Prospective trials to address this topic are awaited and likely to inform regulatory approval and third party cost coverage in the future.
Given the potential importance of identifying patients with underlying endoscopic inflammation despite clinical remission, we have identified clinical and biochemical features that confer a higher risk of ongoing macroscopic colitis. Other groups have used serum and fecal biomarkers to correlate with endoscopic activity, but these studies contained few patients in clinical remission. Solem et al14 demonstrated that CRP correlates with endoscopic scores, but this study included only 5 patients in clinical remission. Schoepfer et al13 reported the correlation between fecal calprotectin and CRP and endoscopic scores in a group that included 26 patients with UC in clinical remission. In our large cohort of patients with UC in clinical remission, the combination of duration of remission (<6 months), WBC, and CRP level demonstrated a sensitivity of 94% and a specificity of 73% to detect moderate-to-severe endoscopic activity. This predictive model is certainly a less costly approach than performing sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy in all patients in clinical remission to assess for endoscopic activity, but it would require validation in a separate (validation) cohort to confirm its test characteristics. Combining clinical history, WBC, and CRP could allow clinicians to reserve follow-up sigmoidoscopy for patients in clinical remission at a higher risk of endoscopic colitis.
The small differences in gene expression seen in PBMCs between patients with normal colons and those with endoscopic inflammation are not entirely surprising, given the small differences in gene expression, and levels of cytokines, seen peripherally even in patients with severe clinical and endoscopic colitis.23,24 The differential expression of GATA3 in the PBMCs of patients with endoscopic colitis is consistent with its role as a transcriptional regulator of type-2 helper T cells (Th2), which are important in the pathogenesis of UC.25–27 It is likely that the underlying colitis in these patients activates Th2 pathways in circulating PBMCs via GATA3. Further validation of this finding in a larger cohort of patients will be required.
Limitations of this study are the small proportion of patients with moderate-to-severe endoscopic inflammation (13%); hence, variables that occur at small frequencies but differ between groups may have been subjected to a type II error. Assuming similar rates of Mayo scores >1 in the general population of patients with UC who undergo surveillance, one would need to enroll a cohort of approximately 700 surveillance patients to detect difference between variables that occur at frequencies of <20%. The study is strengthened by the (1) prospective enrollment and standardized scoring of all patients, and (2) comprehensive clinical phenotypes. The definition of clinical remission used is based on a valid, reliable, and responsive noninvasive measure to assess disease activity in adults with UC.15,16 We focused on blood-based peripheral biomarkers of endoscopic activity, but it did not include validated stool-based markers, such as calprotectin. Finally, we did not measure medication adherence directly, but previous studies from our patient population have reported that 70% to 80% of mesalamine prescriptions are refilled over 6 months.28
In conclusion, endoscopic inflammation is frequent in patients with UC who are in clinical remission. Duration of remission and CRP level may allow clinicians to predict which patients may benefit from the assessment of endoscopic activity to ensure mucosal healing.
The authors acknowledge the assistance of the endoscopy nurses in enrolling patients and obtaining samples for this study.
Author’s Contributions: Study design, acquisition of data, and drafting of manuscript: L. Rosenberg. Study design, analysis and interpretation of data, statistical analysis, drafting of manuscript, and study supervision: A. C. Moss. Acquisition of data and critical review of manuscript: GOL, TZ, AG, J. D. Goldsmith, K. R. Falchuk, J. L. Wolf, S. C. Robson, and A. C. Moss.
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ulcerative colitis; disease activity; endoscopy; histology; C-reactive protein
Supplemental Digital Content
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