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Inflammatory Bowel Diseases:
doi: 10.1097/MIB.0b013e31828c84c5
Original Clinical Articles

Cumulative Incidence and Risk Factors for Hospitalization and Surgery in a Population-based Cohort of Ulcerative Colitis

Samuel, Sunil MBBS, PhD*; Ingle, Steven B. MD*; Dhillon, Shamina MD*; Yadav, Siddhant MD*; Harmsen, W. Scott MS; Zinsmeister, Alan R. PhD; Tremaine, William J. MD*; Sandborn, William J. MD*,‡; Loftus, Edward V. MD*

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Abstract

Background:

We sought to identify clinical and demographic features influencing hospitalization and colectomy in a population-based inception cohort of ulcerative colitis.

Methods:

Between 1970 and 2004, a total of 369 patients (58.5% males) from Olmsted County, MN, were followed from diagnosis for 5401 person-years. The cumulative probability of hospitalization and colectomy were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify factors associated with hospitalization and colectomy.

Results:

The cumulative probability of first hospitalization was 29.4% at 5 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.5%–34.1%), 38.7% at 10 years (33.1%–43.8%), 49.2% at 20 years (42.7%–55.2%), and 52.3% at 30 years (45.1%–59.7%). The incidence rate of hospitalizations decreased over the last 4 decades, although cumulative probability of first hospitalization increased with successive decades of diagnosis. Early need for corticosteroids (hazard ratio [HR], 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1%–2.7%) and early need for hospitalization (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.02–2.4) were independent predictors of hospitalization after 90 days of illness. The cumulative probability of colectomy from the time of diagnosis was 13.1% at 5 years (95% CI, 9.4%–16.6%), 18.9% at 10 years (95% CI, 14.4%–23.2%), and 25.4% at 20 years (95% CI, 19.8%–30.8%). Male gender (HR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3–3.5), diagnosis in the 1990s (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.01–4.0), and diagnosis in 2000 to 2004 (HR, 3.7; 95% CI, 1.7–8.2) were significantly associated with colectomy risk.

Conclusions:

Colectomy rates were comparable to reports from northern Europe. The numbers of hospitalizations show a decreasing trend. Male gender and being diagnosed in the 2000 to 2004 period predicted colectomy while extensive colitis predicted future hospitalizations.

Copyright © 2013 Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of America, Inc.

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