OBJECTIVE: To ascertain temporal trends in the number and share of papers originating from work sites in the ten districts of The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and to identify demographic predictors of variance among the districts.
METHODS: The work sites of the first authors of papers published in Obstetrics & Gynecology were determined for selected years since 1985 and sorted by ACOG district. Three related journals (Fertility and Sterility, Gynecologic Oncology, and the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology) were similarly analyzed for the year 2000. Demographic variables, including numbers of ACOG Fellows, residencies, subspecialty fellowships, and medical schools, were analyzed with multivariable regression for the most predictive variables for number of papers among ACOG districts.
RESULTS: The number and share of papers published in Obstetrics & Gynecology written by authors working in ACOG districts have been declining steadily since 1985, in contrast to the number of papers arising from locations outside of ACOG districts. Analysis of demographic factors for number of papers from four specialty journals in the year 2000 revealed that the number of medical schools in the district (R2 = 0.79) was the most predictive (P < .001).
CONCLUSION: Efforts to identify and correct factors associated with a decline in the number of published papers should focus on conditions in medical schools.
The number of medical schools in The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists districts is predictive for the number of papers published recently from each district in four specialty journals.
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Penn State University College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania
Reprints are not available. Address correspondence to: William C. Dodson, MD, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, PO Box 850, Hershey, PA 17033; E-mail: email@example.com.
Received November 20, 2002. Received in revised form December 7, 2002. Accepted December 18, 2002.