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Epidemiology:
doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e318258369b
Methods

Visualizing Results From Infection Transmission Models: A Case Against “Confidence Intervals”

Lofgren, Eric T.

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Abstract

Stochastic transmission models are highly important in infectious disease epidemiology. The quantity of data produced by these models is challenging to display and communicate. A common approach is to display the model results in the familiar form of a mean or median and 95% interval, plotted over time. This approach has drawbacks, however, including the potential for ambiguity and misinterpretation of model results. Instead, we propose 2 alternative approaches for visualizing results from stochastic models. These proposed approaches convey the information provided by the median and 95% interval, as well as information about unexpected outcomes that may be of particular interest for stochastic epidemic models.

© 2012 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

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