Skip Navigation LinksHome > April 2014 - Volume 37 - Issue 2 > Conditional Survival Probabilities for Patients With Resecte...
Text sizing:
American Journal of Clinical Oncology:
doi: 10.1097/COC.0b013e31826c62b7
Original Articles: Gastrointestinal

Conditional Survival Probabilities for Patients With Resected Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Mishra, Mark V. MD*; Champ, Colin E. MD*; Keith, Scott W. PhD; Showalter, Timothy N. MD*; Anne, Pramila R. MD*; Lawrence, Yaacov Richard MD*; Bar-Ad, Voichita MD*

Collapse Box


Background: The purpose of this study is to evaluate conditional survival probabilities for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PC).

Methods: Patients with resected PC from 1998 to 2008 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Database. Data on patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics were extracted. Overall survival (OS) rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariable analysis at different time points from survival was performed to determine independent prognostic factors associated with all-cause mortality hazard ratios using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results: A total of 4883 patients with resected PC were identified. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimates for patients at diagnosis were 67%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. The probability of surviving an additional 1-, 3-, or 5-year conditional upon already surviving 5 years after diagnosis were 89%, 76%, and 71%, respectively. Prognostic factors significantly correlated with improved OS at the time of diagnosis on multivariable analysis include: earlier stage, younger age, later year of diagnosis, white ethnicity, female sex, and residence in a high income district (P<0.05). Among those already surviving 3 years after diagnosis, younger age was the only prognostic factor statistically significantly correlated with improved OS (P<0.05).

Conclusions: Conditional survival estimates provide additional prognostic information that may be used to counsel PC patients on how their prognosis may change over time. Further research using prospectively collected data is warranted to help determine recommended follow-up intervals and benchmarks for future clinical trials.

© 2014 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc


Article Tools


Article Level Metrics

Search for Similar Articles
You may search for similar articles that contain these same keywords or you may modify the keyword list to augment your search.

Connect With Us


For additional oncology content, visit LWW Oncology Journals on Facebook.