Skip Navigation LinksHome > October/December 2012 - Volume 35 - Issue 4 > Identifying Older Adults at High Risk of Mortality Using the...
Journal of Ambulatory Care Management:
doi: 10.1097/JAC.0b013e3182674721
Original Articles

Identifying Older Adults at High Risk of Mortality Using the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey

Ng, Judy H. PhD; Elliott, Marc N. PhD; Scholle, Sarah Hudson DrPH; Ahmed, Kazi PhD; Collins, Rachel L. MPH; Bierman, Arlene S. MD, MS

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Abstract

The Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES), a screening tool for at-risk elderly, has been validated in the community. This study used VES-based criteria to develop a modified version that can be calculated from the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey (HOS) to identify Medicare members at high risk of mortality. Data were from 97,258 HOS respondents in 164 plans. Using age, self-rated health, and function items from the 2005 HOS, an a priori approach modeled on VES scoring and items predicted two-year mortality (c-statistic 0.74). Routinely-collected Medicare survey data may be used to assess patterns of enrollment of high-risk beneficiaries across health plans.

© 2012 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

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