Objective: To determine the relationship of maternal health factors and infant antiretroviral treatment to the risk of pediatric disease progression to AIDS or death by 24 months of age.
Design: Prospective perinatal HIV-1 transmission and pediatric natural history study.
Setting: Urban medical centers in four cities in the USA.
Participants: A total of 2656 pregnant and postpartum HIV-infected women enrolled in the Perinatal AIDS Collaborative Transmission Study (PACTS) and 360 children determined to be HIV-infected.
Main outcome measures: Pediatric AIDS or death by 24 months of age.
Results: Children born to mothers with class C disease, CD4 cell count < 200 × 106/l, or HIV-1 RNA viral load > 100 000 copies/ml progressed more rapidly than children born to mothers with less advanced disease. In a multivariate analysis, there was an increased risk of progression if mothers had Class C disease [relative risk (RR), 1.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0-2.7] or HIV-1 RNA > 100 000 copies/ml (RR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.6) controlling for child antiretroviral therapy and year of birth. Earlier years of birth significantly increased the likelihood of rapid progression (P = 0.01) in this multivariate model. Children who received combination antiretroviral therapies with a protease inhibitor or non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor were significantly less likely to progress compared with those receiving no therapy (P = 0.03).
Conclusions: HIV-1-infected infants born to women with advanced HIV-1 disease were at increased risk for rapid disease progression. More recent birth year and early treatment with potent antiretroviral therapy significantly diminished the likelihood of developing AIDS or dying during early childhood.