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Failure of predicted VO2peak to discriminate physical fitness in epidemiological studies.

Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise: January 1995
Applied Sciences: Epidemiology: PDF Only

Previous investigators reported that peak oxygen uptake ([latin capital V with dot above]O2peak) could be accurately predicted from nonexercise test variables, and that this score would be suitable for categorizing cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) within epidemiological studies. However, the accuracy of these models has varied considerably. The purposes of this study were: 1) assess the accuracy of predicting [latin capital V with dot above]O2peak with a new nonexerise model, and 2) assess the utility of the predicted [latin capital V with dot above]O2peak for categorizing CRF in epidemiological studies. Subjects included 2,350 men and women. Cross-validated multiple regression models revealed that age, sex, resting heart rate, body weight, percentage body fat, smoking, and physical activity were significant predictors (P < 0.001) of [latin capital V with dot above]O2peak. The multiple regression model for relative [latin capital V with dot above]O2peak (ml[middle dot]kg-1.min-1) had R2 = 0.733 (SEE = 5.38), whereas the model for absolute [latin capital V with dot above]O2peak (1.min-1) had R2 = 0.773 (SEE = 0.425). The 95% confidence intervals for the predicted [latin capital V with dot above]O2peak were large (+/- 10.6 ml[middle dot]kg-1.min-1 and +/- 0.833 1.min-1). These results support the notion that [latin capital V with dot above]O2peak can be predicted from a multiple regression model devoid of exercise test variables. However, due to the extreme variability in the predicted scores, the regression models were unable to effectively distinguish CRF categories. Therefore, despite statistical success in predicting [latin capital V with dot above]O2peak for the nonexercise test regression models, we conclude that such models fail to provide the accuracy needed for categorizing CRF within large epidemiological cohorts where the purpose is to assess mortality risk.

(C)1995The American College of Sports Medicine