This study examined the relationship between academic variables in medical school and outcome measures in the first year of postgraduate training, using data from 947 graduates of Wright State University School of Medicine from 1980 through 1991. The medical school variables were preclinical grade-point averages (GPAs), clerkship GPAs, scores on the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Part I examination, and NBME Part II scores. The outcome measures were NBME Part III scores and physician supervisors' ratings of clinical competence in residency. The medical school academic variables correlated between .46 and .71 with NBME Part III scores and between .20 and .30 with the physician supervisors' ratings. R2 values for NBME Part III scores and physician supervisors' ratings were .51 and .10. Chi-square analysis using factor-analysis-derived variables showed that top-quarter and bottom-quarter achievers in medical school were highly unlikely to change positions whether the graduate outcome measure was physician supervisors' ratings or NBME Part III scores.
(C) 1993 Association of American Medical Colleges